- The recovery will be V-shaped. Look for even higher growth figures in the next two quarters.
- "We'll have positive growth but weak employment."
- Productivity is rising, but much of it may be because employers aren't hiring.
- Employers are making rational choices - - they can choose a large workforce of average workers, or they can choose a smaller workforce of above-average workers. An employer who sees employment as a losing game - - more government regulation, more taxes and more hassles - - isn't going to be eager to hire.
- "But it will sputter out. We'll go back to sub-average growth as the government takes up more of our economy."
- Unemployment will stabilize at a pretty high rate.
- "History shows that as long as the increase of government debt doesn't outpace the growth of national income, things are stable. When the increase in debt is less than three percent, the dollar has risen. But when the increase is greater than six percent of GDP, the dollar has fallen. In 2009, the increase in federal debt was 10 percent of GDP.
- "We can now see capital flowing to the real - - to productive assets rather than paper assets." This is after years of depending on stocks and bonds to securitize wealth - - so now we are at sea.
Scott Burns closes with - - "If he's right, we're heading for what some will call an "asset quake."