Wednesday, November 30, 2016
Engineers Should Take a Class on Data Journalism
“Lessons from the Renaissance of Data Storytelling” by Frank Orrico https://t.co/CrEFXSkVYK— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 30, 2016
Dallas to Build Largest US Urban Park
Dallas is building America's biggest urban nature park https://t.co/Fm9PHLlV37— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 30, 2016
Engineering and the Growth of AI Deals
See 10 key 2016 artificial intelligence deals from Google, Intel, Apple, Salesforce, Samsung and more ... https://t.co/GAn9zY93aT via @Inc— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 30, 2016
What Is SWAT?
Hydrologic modeling could direct eco-friendly urban, rural land development https://t.co/jlOEntdWlS— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 30, 2016
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Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Good Update on Autonomous Vehicles
Autonomous Vehicles: Where Are We Now, and Where Are We Headed? https://t.co/LjwHTPElfF— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 29, 2016
The Texas Way of Urbanism
Texas Way of Urbanism https://t.co/KpoViDM3RI— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 29, 2016
The Importance of 2049
The Year 2049 is looming large in human history. We seem to be driving toward a convergence of two trends ending on 2049. The first is 2049 represents the 100-year anniversary of the communist revolution in China. One has to assume that China would like to mark this date as a celebration of their rise to being the #1 power (military, economic, political, etc,) in the world. The second point to 2049 - it is the approximate point that the U.S. shifts to a white minority due to our changing demographics. The percentage of white citizens in the U.S. will drop below 50% around this time.
What the Option Markets are Saying About Trump on Trade?
From the Financial Times:
"Market prices do convey important information about changing risks. For example, option prices suggest that Mexican assets are expected to deliver larger gains than losses, implying Trump won’t seek to impose headline-grabbing sanctions on the country. Although less pronounced, options market indicators are similar for China, Japan and emerging markets.
In short, the options market does not appear to view Trump as a protectionist but rather as someone who understands the value and importance of global trade."
Will Trump Privatize U.S. Airports?
Airport Privatization Pilot Program – Airports https://t.co/JyFdyK7RpK via @FAANews— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 29, 2016
Monday, November 28, 2016
The Importance of Resilience in the Northeast
Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries https://t.co/PwzNFwADPT— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 28, 2016
Sunday, November 27, 2016
States Test Alternative Road Funding
States Test Alternative Road Funding: As the incoming Trump administration looks for ways to fund its massive $1-trillion infrastructure plan, it could find answers by looking toward the states—in particular, Colorado, California and Oregon.
Saturday, November 26, 2016
How Does Trump Define Infrastructure?
From CityLab:
"Unless! Unless the projects Trump’s team is talking about are not necessarily about “rebuilding” “infrastructure” in the regular sense—but rather, major new property developments. Could an industrial park primed to have a major, even transformative, economic impact on a region be considered infrastructure? Perhaps. And Donald Trump sure knows about developing apartments. Could new housing be considered infrastructure? What about all the sewers and utilities required to support new residential development? Think of the construction booms happening on, say, Roosevelt Island in New York City or Hunters Point in San Francisco. Developers often pay out of pocket through impact fees for water, power, and roads that accompany those kinds of lucrative developments. But perhaps under a Trumpian infrastructure scheme they’d be eligible for a whopping 82 percent tax credit."
"Unless! Unless the projects Trump’s team is talking about are not necessarily about “rebuilding” “infrastructure” in the regular sense—but rather, major new property developments. Could an industrial park primed to have a major, even transformative, economic impact on a region be considered infrastructure? Perhaps. And Donald Trump sure knows about developing apartments. Could new housing be considered infrastructure? What about all the sewers and utilities required to support new residential development? Think of the construction booms happening on, say, Roosevelt Island in New York City or Hunters Point in San Francisco. Developers often pay out of pocket through impact fees for water, power, and roads that accompany those kinds of lucrative developments. But perhaps under a Trumpian infrastructure scheme they’d be eligible for a whopping 82 percent tax credit."
The 750 - Year Replacement Schedule
From Circle of Blue blog:
"Youngstown’s population has fallen by more than 60 percent since 1960. Nearly all of the city’s 750 miles of water mains need to be replaced. In a money-saving move, the city is eliminating water and sewer service to abandoned areas and barricading roads that are empty of houses within a roughly one-square-mile zone in the city’s northeast corner.
“It’s a mess,” Bill D’Avignon, deputy director of planning for Youngstown, Ohio, said with a hollow laugh during an interview with Circle of Blue. “It is an aging infrastructure that has not been on an adequate replacement schedule. We’re replacing about one mile per year. We’re on that 750-year replacement cycle.”"
Cuba Fact of the Day
From the Marginal Revolution:
"If you are wondering, the World Bank measures Cuban GDP at over $6,000 per capita, but that is based on a planned economy and an unrealistic exchange rate. In reality, Cuba probably is richer than Nicaragua, where GDP per capital is approximately $2,000, but we don’t know by how much. Cuba does have relatively high levels of health care and education, but we’ve learned from post-Soviet reform experiences that it is easy for a nation to lose those advantages. There are already shortages of many basic health care items, including medical technology and antibiotics."
"If you are wondering, the World Bank measures Cuban GDP at over $6,000 per capita, but that is based on a planned economy and an unrealistic exchange rate. In reality, Cuba probably is richer than Nicaragua, where GDP per capital is approximately $2,000, but we don’t know by how much. Cuba does have relatively high levels of health care and education, but we’ve learned from post-Soviet reform experiences that it is easy for a nation to lose those advantages. There are already shortages of many basic health care items, including medical technology and antibiotics."
You Can Have Only Two of Three
From The Economist:
Dani Rodrik of Harvard University is the author of the best-known such critique. In the late 1990s he pointed out that deeper economic integration required harmonisation of laws and regulations across countries. Differences in rules on employment contracts or product-safety requirements, for instance, act as barriers to trade. Indeed, trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership focus more on “non-tariff barriers” than they do on tariff reduction. But the consequences often run counter to popular preferences: the French might find themselves barred from supporting a French-language film industry, for example.
Deeper integration, Mr Rodrik reckoned, will therefore lead either to an erosion of democracy, as national leaders disregard the will of the public, or will cause the dissolution of the nation state, as authority moves to supranational bodies elected to create harmonised rules for everyone to follow. These trade-offs create a “trilemma”, in Mr Rodrik’s view: societies cannot be globally integrated, completely sovereign and democratic—they can opt for only two of the three. In the late 1990s Mr Rodrik speculated that the sovereignty of nation states would be the item societies chose to discard. Yet it now seems that economic integration may be more vulnerable.
Alberto Alesina of Harvard University and Enrico Spolaore of Tufts University presented a different but related view of the trade-offs entailed by global economic integration in “The Size of Nations”, published in 2003. They note that there are advantages to being a large country. Bigger countries can muster more resources for national defence, for instance. They also have large internal markets. But bigness also carries costs. The larger and more heterogeneous a country, the more difficult it is for the government to satisfy its citizens’ political preferences. There is less variation in political views in Scotland, to take one example, than across Britain as a whole. When policy is made by the British parliament (rather than in Edinburgh, Belfast and so on) the average Briton is slightly less satisfied with the result.
Global integration, Messrs Alesina and Spolaore argue, reduces the economic cost of breaking up big countries, since the smaller entities that result will not be cut off from bigger markets. Meanwhile the benefits of separatism, in terms of being able to cater better to the preferences of voters, are less diminished. So the global reduction in barriers to trade since the second world war, the pair contend, at least partly explains the simultaneous growth in the number of countries, even if national fractures often involve, or lead to, political instability and violence.
A Paragraph to Ponder
From The Atlantic:
"Hill says that one way to create jobs in the Rust Belt is to bolster apprenticeship programs so that unskilled workers can get trained in some of the hundreds of thousands of jobs now going unfilled. Another is to model the manufacturing system on the one in Germany, where public-private institutes translate research into potential commercial products, and detailed educational pathways help train students for jobs that will be in demand. “We’ve lost the ability to train a sophisticated manufacturing workforce,” he said. One-fifth of the German workforce is employed in manufacturing—double the U.S.’s share."
"Hill says that one way to create jobs in the Rust Belt is to bolster apprenticeship programs so that unskilled workers can get trained in some of the hundreds of thousands of jobs now going unfilled. Another is to model the manufacturing system on the one in Germany, where public-private institutes translate research into potential commercial products, and detailed educational pathways help train students for jobs that will be in demand. “We’ve lost the ability to train a sophisticated manufacturing workforce,” he said. One-fifth of the German workforce is employed in manufacturing—double the U.S.’s share."
Friday, November 25, 2016
A Paragraph to Ponder
From the New York Tomes Upshot:
"Yet that picture masks a key fact about the geography of family in the United States: The typical adult lives only 18 miles from his or her mother, according to an Upshot analysis of data from a comprehensive survey of older Americans. Over the last few decades, Americans have become less mobile, and most adults – especially those with less education or lower incomes — do not venture far from their hometowns."
"Yet that picture masks a key fact about the geography of family in the United States: The typical adult lives only 18 miles from his or her mother, according to an Upshot analysis of data from a comprehensive survey of older Americans. Over the last few decades, Americans have become less mobile, and most adults – especially those with less education or lower incomes — do not venture far from their hometowns."
Trump's Texas Toll Roads
From the Texas Tribune:
"Part of president-elect Donald Trump’s promise to create new jobs for Americans relies on a “deficit-neutral plan” to spend $1 trillion on public works projects, including hundreds of billions for roads and rail.
But the strategy could result in something many Texans aren’t going to like: more toll roads.
“Unfortunately that’s the way I’ve read it,” said state Sen. Don Huffines, R-Dallas, vice chair of the Texas Senate transportation committee.
There are also fears the plan could provide few new highway projects or road improvements to the state’s vast rural areas. And the lack of details in the proposal has so far made it unclear how Texas’ urban transit agencies could be affected."
Trump in Space
Ftom The Guardian -
"Bob Walker, a senior Trump campaign adviser, said there was no need for Nasa to do what he has previously described as “politically correct environmental monitoring”.
“We see Nasa in an exploration role, in deep space research,” Walker told the Guardian. “Earth-centric science is better placed at other agencies where it is their prime mission.
“My guess is that it would be difficult to stop all ongoing Nasa programs but future programs should definitely be placed with other agencies. I believe that climate research is necessary but it has been heavily politicized, which has undermined a lot of the work that researchers have been doing. Mr Trump’s decisions will be based upon solid science, not politicized science.”"
Thursday, November 24, 2016
Transformative Infrastructure Investment and American Competitiveness
Transformative Infrastructure Investment and American Competitiveness: A note from Roosevelt Institute President and CEO Felicia Wong: America needs genuine infrastructure investment now more than ever—and that means more than just filling potholes. It means building the foundation for 21st century commerce, which is a long-term strategic necessity. It includes public investments in high-speed rail, universal broadband, and a carbon-reducing power grid,... Read more »
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
The Trump Infrastructure Bank
From CityLab:
"These are all reasons why many a transportation policy wonk has described the national infrastructure bank as the “next best idea for the past 25 years.” Bill Clinton promised to establish one. President Obama pushed for one repeatedly, without success, for years—even though the idea has also Republican proponents, including South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham. The idea saw a revival in 2015, just as Congress was heading towards its last “highway cliff.” But opponents argued that an infrastructure bank was just another way to get stuff done with IOUs—and others probably just didn’t like the fact that Obama was associated with the concept."
"These are all reasons why many a transportation policy wonk has described the national infrastructure bank as the “next best idea for the past 25 years.” Bill Clinton promised to establish one. President Obama pushed for one repeatedly, without success, for years—even though the idea has also Republican proponents, including South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham. The idea saw a revival in 2015, just as Congress was heading towards its last “highway cliff.” But opponents argued that an infrastructure bank was just another way to get stuff done with IOUs—and others probably just didn’t like the fact that Obama was associated with the concept."
Potato Update for Thanksgiving Eve!!
How potatoes rule the US, in 2 charts vox.com/2015/11/25/979… via @voxdotcom
Go To Hell For Data
From the Financial Times:
"Clay Christensen tells a good joke about a tour of heaven. "How come there's no data here?" the Harvard professor asks his celestial guide. "Because data lies," comes the response. And that is why Prof Christensen goes on, "whenever anyone says "Show me the data", "I just say "Go to hell.""
"Clay Christensen tells a good joke about a tour of heaven. "How come there's no data here?" the Harvard professor asks his celestial guide. "Because data lies," comes the response. And that is why Prof Christensen goes on, "whenever anyone says "Show me the data", "I just say "Go to hell.""
The Computer Deplorables
From a study highlighted on Marginal Revolution:
"The numbers for the 4 skill levels don’t sum to 100% because a large proportion of the respondents never attempted the tasks, being unable to use computers. In total, across the OECD countries, 26% of adults were unable to use a computer.
That one quarter of the population can’t use a computer at all is the most serious element of the digital divide. To a great extent, this problem is caused by computers still being much too complicated for many people."
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
The Death of Our Green Infrastructure
From Vox:
"Forest managers have never seen anything like it. Across California, an astounding 102 million trees have died over the past six years from drought and disease — including 62 million trees in 2016 alone, the US Forest Service estimates. Once-mighty oaks and pines have faded into ghastly hues of brown and gray."
"Forest managers have never seen anything like it. Across California, an astounding 102 million trees have died over the past six years from drought and disease — including 62 million trees in 2016 alone, the US Forest Service estimates. Once-mighty oaks and pines have faded into ghastly hues of brown and gray."
Measuring Trump's Performance
My running list:
- Weekly West Virginia coal production
- Monthly cement production
- Number construction workers employed
- GDP growth
- Walmart store on store revenue growth
I will update the performance metric quarterly.
A Paragraph To Ponder
From the Washington Post:
The divide is economic, and it is massive. According to the Brookings analysis, the less-than-500 counties that Clinton won nationwide combined to generate 64 percent of America's economic activity in 2015. The more-than-2,600 counties that Trump won combined to generate 36 percent of the country's economic activity last year.
The divide is economic, and it is massive. According to the Brookings analysis, the less-than-500 counties that Clinton won nationwide combined to generate 64 percent of America's economic activity in 2015. The more-than-2,600 counties that Trump won combined to generate 36 percent of the country's economic activity last year.
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
How Social Media Can Damage the Bottom Line
From CNN Money:
"The President-elect's supporters are threatening to boycott Pepsi (PEP) over fabricated statements circulating on social media. Twitter users, many citing debunked news articles, claim PepsiCo (PEP) CEO Indra Nooyi told Trump fans to "take their business elsewhere."
Sites designed to trick people, including Truthfeed and Gateway Pundit, published the fake quote while encouraging readers to stop buying Pepsi's products. Gateway Pundit also incorrectly claimed PepsiCo's stock plunged 5% because of the comment that Nooyi never actually made.
Nooyi never told Trump's supporters that Pepsi doesn't want their business and she even congratulated the president-elect on his victory. But she condemned the ugly rhetoric of the campaign.
"How dare we talk about women that way," Nooyi actually said at the New York Times Dealbook conference in response to a question referencing the election and domestic violence in the NFL. She also discussed the impact of the election on her employees."
Upset Architects
Why Architects Are Outraged Over a Letter to Trump https://t.co/6vNEwRbAex— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 16, 2016
Term of the Day - Currency Manipulator
Council on Foreign Relations— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 16, 2016
Applying the Currency Manipulator Label via @CFR_org
https://t.co/l9D1K0wQKW
Water for Texas 2017
Early registration & Innovative Water Supply Awards close soon! Don’t miss Nov. 18 deadline for #WaterForTX2017. https://t.co/MLuuHMBj9r pic.twitter.com/pgKvAuZ2lb— TX Water Dev Board (@twdb) November 16, 2016
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Trump on Trade
Daily chart: A Trump trade agenda https://t.co/JLmxGssY1q via @TheEconomist— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 16, 2016
A Paragraph to Ponder
I am not sure West Virginia understood they were voting for even more coal mining job losses - - from the Marginal Revolution:
"Trump’s reputed interest in freeing-up permitting of energy infrastructure (e.g., gas pipelines and drilling on public lands, if indeed it can be achieved) may have the paradoxical effect of further reducing emissions. It could make it easier to get currently very cheap Marcellus / Utica gas into the center of the country and perhaps even increase overall natural gas output. This can have only one outcome; reduced national gas prices overall and less coal consumption."
"Trump’s reputed interest in freeing-up permitting of energy infrastructure (e.g., gas pipelines and drilling on public lands, if indeed it can be achieved) may have the paradoxical effect of further reducing emissions. It could make it easier to get currently very cheap Marcellus / Utica gas into the center of the country and perhaps even increase overall natural gas output. This can have only one outcome; reduced national gas prices overall and less coal consumption."
Monday, November 14, 2016
An Update on Battling Engineers - Trump Bombs vs Iranian Concrete
The economist: Iran makes some of the world’s toughest concrete https://t.co/9tqsDhfYyc— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 15, 2016
Thinking About Future Civil Engineering Skill Sets
From ICE:
"We are already in the reality of 3D concrete printing from BIM models. We are discussing car trains on digitally controlled motorways. Some consumer suppliers will be delivering products via drones, changing how infrastructure is used. Renewable energy sources will become more sustainable as hydrogen technology and battery storage improves, changing energy distribution systems. Design life will shorten as we design to accommodate faster changing technology. Design itself will be carried out by computer algorithms. So, is my first question about skills shortages as easy to answer as we think? Let me ask the question a different way. What skills will we need in the future to deliver our infrastructure? Is it a from the traditional engineering background or will it be someone from somewhere completely different such as data analytics, a technology company, or a manufacturing or logistics organisation. Maybe even a flat pack manufacturer! If we are to deliver on 2025 and be more efficient, generate more savings, reduce construction times, reduce carbon, should we be looking to other industries and asking who do we need to speak with, work with, to deliver the infrastructure for the Google self-driving car on the intelligent highway that responds to user requirements in real time? We may, like the Japanese, then be able to export the delivery model."
"We are already in the reality of 3D concrete printing from BIM models. We are discussing car trains on digitally controlled motorways. Some consumer suppliers will be delivering products via drones, changing how infrastructure is used. Renewable energy sources will become more sustainable as hydrogen technology and battery storage improves, changing energy distribution systems. Design life will shorten as we design to accommodate faster changing technology. Design itself will be carried out by computer algorithms. So, is my first question about skills shortages as easy to answer as we think? Let me ask the question a different way. What skills will we need in the future to deliver our infrastructure? Is it a from the traditional engineering background or will it be someone from somewhere completely different such as data analytics, a technology company, or a manufacturing or logistics organisation. Maybe even a flat pack manufacturer! If we are to deliver on 2025 and be more efficient, generate more savings, reduce construction times, reduce carbon, should we be looking to other industries and asking who do we need to speak with, work with, to deliver the infrastructure for the Google self-driving car on the intelligent highway that responds to user requirements in real time? We may, like the Japanese, then be able to export the delivery model."
Twitter, Protectionist Trade and Governor John Kasich
Interesting the Japanese translated version that shows up on a Google search for Kasich's twitter account. Illustrates the importance of our globally integrated car manufacturing system - - Honda has some pull in Ohio.
Engineering Emotive Lighting
Soon, All the Bridges Will Have Fancy Lighting https://t.co/z9BHb83QLX— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 15, 2016
How Would a Trump Trade War Impact Engineers?
From The Daily Beast:
"The state-run Global Times newspaper additionally warned Trump that should he begin such trade wars with China, “A batch of Boeing orders will be replaced by Airbus. U.S. auto and iPhone sales in China will suffer a setback, and U.S. soybean and maize imports will be halted. China can also limit the number of Chinese students studying in the U.S.”
"The state-run Global Times newspaper additionally warned Trump that should he begin such trade wars with China, “A batch of Boeing orders will be replaced by Airbus. U.S. auto and iPhone sales in China will suffer a setback, and U.S. soybean and maize imports will be halted. China can also limit the number of Chinese students studying in the U.S.”
How Do Engineers Fit Into Stimulus Accounting?
Conservatives opposed Obama's stimulus. @TylerCowen explains why Trump's is worse https://t.co/KFM0OlWmy4 via @BV— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 14, 2016
The Trump Infrastructure Plan - Make Rural America Great Again
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/11/making-america-great.html
Several points from the Cowen post - - (1.) What Trump means
by infrastructure (i.e., how broad under the infrastructure umbrella) will be
interesting - - probably going to view infrastructure through the lens of a
real estate developer, (2.) P3s need infrastructure to be monetized - - very
hard to monetize infrastructure in rural areas. P3s are a dense living
urban thing - - an urban didn’t win the election for Trump, and (3.) A bunch of
small towns in NC for example that lost textile and furniture manufacturing
jobs - - never coming back. Seems to force the issue of a political
strategy where getting infrastructure jobs (or any jobs for that matter) to
“small” American is critical.
It could be we will have a “large” infrastructure plan
directed toward “small” America - - need to watch this. Could be a
complete federal focus shift - - rural, especially rural manufacturing centers
are highly targeted. The hats will need to be redone - - “Make Rural
America Great Again”.
Sunday, November 13, 2016
President Trump - The Best and Worst Case Scenarios
The Black Swan President https://t.co/KApKC0zOUp— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 13, 2016
Will a President Trump Hurt Texas?
Border leaders think Trump's tough talk on NAFTA will die down https://t.co/zkSNhzfKK9 via @TexasTribune— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 13, 2016
Has Civil Engineering Forgotten Rural America?
How Half Of America Lost Its F**king Mind https://t.co/udwwHIG5mS— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 13, 2016
Trump Presidential Performance Metric - - West Virginia Weekly Coal Production
From time to time I will check with the EIA weekly coal data to see if President Trump has actually increased West Virginia coal production.
Saturday, November 12, 2016
The Responsibilities of Engineering Elites
From Foreign Policy:
"At the root of our problems is our inability to create shared prosperity and the unwillingness of the political system to discuss and tackle this problem. To equal our modern-day challenge, our institutions therefore need to show that they can make the gains from new technologies and trade more widely shared; build a much stronger and more rational social safety net; reform our tax and entitlement system; reduce the increasingly onerous red tape confronting small businesses; improve our badly failing educational system (if necessary over the objections of teachers unions); start investing in our long-neglected infrastructure; and at last, recognize some of the most debilitating problems facing our society’s most disadvantaged, including violence in our inner cities and mass incarceration in our prisons. All this needs to be done without further deepening the polarization that laid the tracks for Donald Trump’s rise. It’s a tall order, though not an impossible one. And it will require that American elites recognize that the battle to save American democracy won’t be over on Tuesday, regardless of the outcome of the vote."
"At the root of our problems is our inability to create shared prosperity and the unwillingness of the political system to discuss and tackle this problem. To equal our modern-day challenge, our institutions therefore need to show that they can make the gains from new technologies and trade more widely shared; build a much stronger and more rational social safety net; reform our tax and entitlement system; reduce the increasingly onerous red tape confronting small businesses; improve our badly failing educational system (if necessary over the objections of teachers unions); start investing in our long-neglected infrastructure; and at last, recognize some of the most debilitating problems facing our society’s most disadvantaged, including violence in our inner cities and mass incarceration in our prisons. All this needs to be done without further deepening the polarization that laid the tracks for Donald Trump’s rise. It’s a tall order, though not an impossible one. And it will require that American elites recognize that the battle to save American democracy won’t be over on Tuesday, regardless of the outcome of the vote."
Burning More Coal
Here’s how President Trump’s energy and climate policies may play out - via @techreview https://t.co/ivOvg40MW9— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 12, 2016
The Inflation President
"Bloomberg reports Investors Are Betting That Trump Will Be the Inflation President. “Trump is about to make inflation great again.”
The New York Times says The Market Is Betting Trump Will Bring Higher Inflation and Interest Rates. “When the government pours hundreds of billions of dollars into infrastructure when there is mass unemployment, it can help put those people back to work and turn it into higher economic output without creating inflation. But when nearly all the people who want a job already have one, that spending just bids up the pay of people already working, eventually resulting in higher prices more broadly.”
Money reports What President Trump Means for Interest Rates — and Janet Yellen’s Job. “A massive increase in fiscal spending to rebuild roads, bridges, and airports, combined with vast deficit-spending in the form of a tax cut, may lead to more money swirling around an already relatively health economy. If you include Trump’s threat to impose a new tariffs on Chinese and Mexican goods, the cost of goods that Americans buy at Wal-Mart and Costco could rise by about 3%, according Moody’s Analytics”"
Behind Trump’s victory: Divisions by race, gender, education
Behind Trump’s victory: Divisions by race, gender, education: Donald Trump's win followed a campaign that revealed deep divisions that were as wide and in some cases wider than in previous elections.
The Difference Between HIgh School Students in a Post-Trump World
High school students in the 1950s and 60s had to work extremely hard to be a failure. The U.S. had just too many internal opportunities. Students graduating in 2017 face the opposite issue - - students have to work extremely hard to not end up a failure. They have limited opportunities and very stiff global and regional competition. Because of this, the educational discussion shifted over time from minimization (i.e., a little of the three Rs and off to the Happy Days malt shop) to maximization (i.e., six hours of homework every night because some kid in China wants your job).
The new global populist world order and protectionists trade advocates seek to minimize high school graduate and middle class failure rates by getting us back to the malt shop. Look for educational minimization to take hold in a populist/protected world.
The new global populist world order and protectionists trade advocates seek to minimize high school graduate and middle class failure rates by getting us back to the malt shop. Look for educational minimization to take hold in a populist/protected world.
A Paragraph to Ponder
From the Kirkus Review:
"Using data from a variety of sources, extrapolating from that data, and mixing in large dollops of admitted speculation, Cowen (Chair, Economics/George Mason Univ.; Average Is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation, 2013, etc.) claims that the population at large is resisting changes in the economy that could improve the social order. The author, who runs Marginal Revolution, “the “most-read economics blog worldwide,” divides the population into three complacent categories: “The Privileged Class,” who are comfortable and usually wealthy; “Those Who Dig In,” roughly equivalent to the traditional middle class; and “Those Who Got Stuck,” who, Cowen maintains, have pretty much given up trying to rise economically and socially (many were never given the chance to do so). The author focuses on a variety of issues, including the downturn in Americans moving to different regions to seek improvement, increased racial and/or ethnic segregation, decreased innovation in the business sector, stagnation within pop culture, and failure to challenge authority in an organized manner. As he builds his argument against complacency, Cowen regularly employs metaphors and analogies that help illuminate his positions; he is a skilled stylist and polished debater. In the final analysis, though, whether he is persuasive will depend heavily on how willing readers will be to accept sweeping generalizations about the American populace. In conclusion, Cowen describes how a dynamic society should look and feel, and then he shifts his pessimism about the present to a sort of ersatz optimism about the future, when current structures collapse and chaos improves American democracy."
"Using data from a variety of sources, extrapolating from that data, and mixing in large dollops of admitted speculation, Cowen (Chair, Economics/George Mason Univ.; Average Is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation, 2013, etc.) claims that the population at large is resisting changes in the economy that could improve the social order. The author, who runs Marginal Revolution, “the “most-read economics blog worldwide,” divides the population into three complacent categories: “The Privileged Class,” who are comfortable and usually wealthy; “Those Who Dig In,” roughly equivalent to the traditional middle class; and “Those Who Got Stuck,” who, Cowen maintains, have pretty much given up trying to rise economically and socially (many were never given the chance to do so). The author focuses on a variety of issues, including the downturn in Americans moving to different regions to seek improvement, increased racial and/or ethnic segregation, decreased innovation in the business sector, stagnation within pop culture, and failure to challenge authority in an organized manner. As he builds his argument against complacency, Cowen regularly employs metaphors and analogies that help illuminate his positions; he is a skilled stylist and polished debater. In the final analysis, though, whether he is persuasive will depend heavily on how willing readers will be to accept sweeping generalizations about the American populace. In conclusion, Cowen describes how a dynamic society should look and feel, and then he shifts his pessimism about the present to a sort of ersatz optimism about the future, when current structures collapse and chaos improves American democracy."
Friday, November 11, 2016
Trump and Foreign Engineering Students
From Inside Higher Ed:
"College and university budgets are most heavily dependent on tuition and fee revenue, however. Trump talked about forcing colleges to cut their tuition rates while he was on the campaign trial. His anti-immigration rhetoric has also worried international students and caught the attention of the financial community.
Moody’s Investors Service focused on potential changes in government policies on immigration, student visas and poststudy work by international students in a report on Trump’s proposals. Immigration changes could immediately affect universities’ international enrollment, which has spiked by 73 percent in the last decade, Moody’s wrote.
“Loss of tuition revenue from international students, an important revenue diversifier for some universities, would be credit negative, particularly for universities with less well-known global brands and those that more recently entered the international student market,” according to Moody’s. Experts, meanwhile, wondered what Trump’s economic proposals could do to tuition revenue.
If Trump’s policies like trade protectionism and infrastructure spending end up boosting middle-class families’ fortunes, it could mean a boom for enrollments as families attain a newfound ability to send students to college. Subsequently, that would likely boost college revenues. But if the income gap widens under Trump, or if student aid is cut substantially, enrollments could fall."
"College and university budgets are most heavily dependent on tuition and fee revenue, however. Trump talked about forcing colleges to cut their tuition rates while he was on the campaign trial. His anti-immigration rhetoric has also worried international students and caught the attention of the financial community.
Moody’s Investors Service focused on potential changes in government policies on immigration, student visas and poststudy work by international students in a report on Trump’s proposals. Immigration changes could immediately affect universities’ international enrollment, which has spiked by 73 percent in the last decade, Moody’s wrote.
“Loss of tuition revenue from international students, an important revenue diversifier for some universities, would be credit negative, particularly for universities with less well-known global brands and those that more recently entered the international student market,” according to Moody’s. Experts, meanwhile, wondered what Trump’s economic proposals could do to tuition revenue.
If Trump’s policies like trade protectionism and infrastructure spending end up boosting middle-class families’ fortunes, it could mean a boom for enrollments as families attain a newfound ability to send students to college. Subsequently, that would likely boost college revenues. But if the income gap widens under Trump, or if student aid is cut substantially, enrollments could fall."
Trump's Transportation Policy
The Road Ahead for Transportation Policy https://t.co/3HdiLEzT58— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 11, 2016
Thursday, November 10, 2016
Heathrow Owner Plans $19-Billion Expansion
Heathrow Owner Plans $19-Billion Expansion: The design to nearly double the airport footprint includes a 3,500-m-long runway and new terminals
Two Donald Trumps
My predictions - - a tale of two Trumps:
·
Teddy Roosevelt Bigness - - everything he does
will be YUGE. From tax code modernization to infrastructure
investment. Bigness to everything he approaches. If it is not big
- - he is not going to care.
·
Socialized Leadership Style - - end of Obama and
W. style presidential remoteness. Constant in your face management
approach and style. The Art of the Deal comes to the Oval Office and
foreign capitals.
·
No Deficit or Debt Constraints - - the
Democratization of the Republican Party.
·
Owes No One - - Maybe the most powerful
President-Elect in U.S. history (pause and think about that for a
moment). Not beholden to anyone or anything for helping him get
elected. Zero political constraints.
·
YUGE increase in DOD and VA spending.
·
He and his family maybe smarter than people he
will have on his Cabinet. Executive branch managed more like a family
business than a corporation.
The Bad Trump
·
Cannot fix big problems or turnaround certain
industries. The problems of the coal industry is not coal - - the problem
is natural gas. He has made YUGE promises to both the coal and natural
gas industries - - this will be problematic. Manufacturing - - 75% of
manufacturing job loss since 2005 is associated with automation and
robotics. This ship has already sailed. A truck loaded with beer
just went from Denver to Dallas driverless last week. The #1 job of
non-college educated white males - - truck driver - - 1,500,000 employed.
You do the math.
·
Russian relations better - - but China relations
goes off the cliff. Increased borrowing (who buys all those treasuries?)
while threatening trade wars? To the Chinese, Trump is a sign/signal of
American declinism. They have been around since the 10th
century - - waiting him out four years is a blip on their time line.
Mexico has the potential to drift very quickly into economic and political
chaos - - this is a YUGE problem for Texas.
·
More federal borrowing + higher inflation via
protectionist trade policies = the Era of Higher Interest Rates. and Higher
Inflation Occurring at the Same Time. The disappointment of not producing
enough $45 per hour manufacturing jobs, but producing higher interest rates and
inflation makes for another circus in 2020.
·
The infrastructure plan looks very heavy on P3
and privatization.
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
Harvard Program Pushes Sustainable Infrastructure in Urban Planning
Harvard Program Pushes Sustainable Infrastructure in Urban Planning: A Harvard University graduate school of design program has published a guidebook for municipalities in how to take an integrated approach to designing and building sustainable infrastructure in concert with urban planning.
Post Trump - America the Weak
From The Economist:
"China’s hawks see a geopolitical opportunity. Deep in the belief system of China’s ruling Communist party is that China is a rising power and America a declining one. Mr Trump’s election is already being seen as a cause and a consequence of American weakness. “The US and West may have to suffer from its consequences rather than China,” wrote Global Times, a newspaper with links to the military. “We may as well let the guy go up and see what chaos he can create.”"
"China’s hawks see a geopolitical opportunity. Deep in the belief system of China’s ruling Communist party is that China is a rising power and America a declining one. Mr Trump’s election is already being seen as a cause and a consequence of American weakness. “The US and West may have to suffer from its consequences rather than China,” wrote Global Times, a newspaper with links to the military. “We may as well let the guy go up and see what chaos he can create.”"
Prediction is Difficult - Especially About the Future
The Economist explains: How did the polls get it wrong? https://t.co/ZZxsogw05O via @TheEconomist— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 10, 2016
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
The Good News - Driverless Trucks Can Deliver Beer
From Bloomberg Technology:
"Uber and Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (also a Convoy customer) recently sent an 18-wheeler full of beer more than 120 miles down Colorado’s I-25 highway without a driver, a stunt intended to prove the company could use autonomous trucks for commercial deliveries. The company is working on trucking marketplace software to connect drivers of regular trucks with cargo loads and signing up shippers to try it when the app goes live, Uber said. Over time, Uber plans to merge the self-driving technology, obtained in its acquisition of Otto, and the marketplace app."
"Uber and Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (also a Convoy customer) recently sent an 18-wheeler full of beer more than 120 miles down Colorado’s I-25 highway without a driver, a stunt intended to prove the company could use autonomous trucks for commercial deliveries. The company is working on trucking marketplace software to connect drivers of regular trucks with cargo loads and signing up shippers to try it when the app goes live, Uber said. Over time, Uber plans to merge the self-driving technology, obtained in its acquisition of Otto, and the marketplace app."
Burgess & Niple Looks at Post-Tensioned Bridges
Post tensioned-bridges-diagnosing-remediating-corrosive-conditions https://t.co/uKywIG4Fb8 via @SlideShare— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 8, 2016
A Paragraph to Ponder
From Medium:
"No matter where you live in America, there’s likely a sense that public transportation is in a state of disrepair at best, or crisis at worst. Two of our nation’s biggest public transportation systems, in New York and Washington, D.C., are undergoing major repairs that will last at least a year and, during that time, will have to intermittently shut down major train lines. San Francisco’s BART is an essential need for the lower and middle classes, but is constantly wracked with delays that tech workers who glide to work on corporate buses get to ignore. Usually, we throw tax dollars at these sorts of problems, but a growing number of tech evangelists are claiming we can innovate our way out of highway gridlock and a reliance on century-old transit tech."
"No matter where you live in America, there’s likely a sense that public transportation is in a state of disrepair at best, or crisis at worst. Two of our nation’s biggest public transportation systems, in New York and Washington, D.C., are undergoing major repairs that will last at least a year and, during that time, will have to intermittently shut down major train lines. San Francisco’s BART is an essential need for the lower and middle classes, but is constantly wracked with delays that tech workers who glide to work on corporate buses get to ignore. Usually, we throw tax dollars at these sorts of problems, but a growing number of tech evangelists are claiming we can innovate our way out of highway gridlock and a reliance on century-old transit tech."
Our Sunny Future
Tesla and SolarCity: Harbingers of Future Mobility and Energy https://t.co/T8uhcgRQdR— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 8, 2016
Monday, November 7, 2016
Twitter and Customer Service
@DocEngineering We're truly sorry for the hiccups yesterday. Please follow us for more info.— American Airlines (@AmericanAir) November 8, 2016
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Owners Ask Contractors to Ramp Up Recruitment, Productivity
Owners Ask Contractors to Ramp Up Recruitment, Productivity: The construction market has been growing steadily.
Texans Talk Mobility on Facebook
Link - https://www.facebook.com/texastribune/videos/10154484277570837/
In Pursuit of Water
In Pursuit of Water: Years of drought and other ever-present threats to infrastructure resiliency have spurred the city of Los Angeles to embark on a comprehensive planning effort that city officials and industry observers say is unprecedented in the U.S. in its scale and complexity.
How Poorly is Water Managed (and Who is to Blame)?
Water: The dry facts https://t.co/5K1dZuCsuO via @TheEconomist— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 3, 2016
Why Engineers Should Read Books
CGK ON : Books https://t.co/OYUynp7RO2— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 3, 2016
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
Asian Water Wars
As Asia's populations grow and its weather changes, water is causing conflict https://t.co/ci9ze9qb4e via @BW— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 3, 2016
LAN Reminds Us of the Flint Water Horror Show
How happy and safe did you make Flint - https://t.co/p43Md9fBHF https://t.co/zY6Q9lIFcO— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 3, 2016
Engineering Tradeoffs
Arup | Thoughts | Achieving resilient power and clean air https://t.co/kPhfWltZ4o— Dr.Steven D.Sanders (@DocEngineering) November 3, 2016
Presidential Politics and the Peso
What goes Peso to $$$ exchange rate say about presidential election prediction and results? @NateSilver538 @JoeNBC @UpshotNYT pic.twitter.com/r1pxJ9VaYv
— Dr.StevenD.Sanders(@DocEngineering) November 2, 2016