Wit and Wisdom of an Engineer

Water is the story

2012-02-18T03:31:00.001-06:00

Four different water stories, from four different regions and perspectives, all on the same day - - water is beginning to be the story regardless of where you are:

New York Times (February 17, 2012) - - The New "It" Thing In Texas: A Well by Kate Galbraith

"Bee Cave Drilling, a Dripping Springs-based company, has a four-month waiting list, compared with a normal winter wait of two weeks, according to Jim Blair, its president."

Financial Times (February 17, 2012) - - China issues alert on water shortages by Lesile Hook

"Beijing has tried to address the issue with policies that limit consumption, control pollution, and increase monitoring of far-flung waterways. The government has also invested huge amounts of money in water conservation, irrigation and management systems, and plans to spend $638 billion on the sector in the next to years."

The Economist (February 17, 2012) - - Special Report on Pakistan / Going with the flow

"The study forecasts that by 2035 Pakistan's annual water supply will fall short of demand by around 100 billion cubic metres, about half of the entire present flow of the Indus. In parts of the country the shortage of water is already acute. Around Quetta in Balochistan, for example, the water table is now 330-400 metres (1,000 - 1,200 feet) below the surface and estimated to be falling by 3.5 metres a year. Over 2,000 tube wells have dried up. Electricity subsidies encourage expensive pumping of scare water."

The Dallas Morning News (February 17, 2012) - - River runs into danger by Jonathan Waterman

"Demand for water water isn't the only problem. Climate change also threatens to reduce runoff by 10 percent to 30 percent by 2050, depending on how much the planet warms, according to a 2009 paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Although the river delta {Colorado River delta} can't yet be pronounced dead, its pulse is feeble and its once-vital estuaries and riverside forests are shrinking."

Seven Ways to Improve U.S. Transportation

2012-02-17T06:28:00.001-06:00

From Bloomberg News - - Spending Won't Fix What Ails U.S. Infrastructure by Harvard University economics professor Edward Glaeser - - seven ways to improve transportation in the United States:

Let Users Pay - - A quote from Adam Smith, ". . .when high-roads, bridges, canals, etc., are in this manner made and supported by the commerce which is carried on by means of them, they can be made only where commerce requires them, and, consequently where it is proper to make them." The future belongs to user fees to support the maintenance of aging infrastructure. Like all prices, they allocate scarce resources to the people who value them most. Note to future engineers - - the future of civil engineering might just look like our distant past. Infrastructure in the U.S. started in the private sector, and it may be going back to the private sector. Those engineers who think and see the world like owners and developers will do very well.
Implement Congestion Pricing - - We should expect drivers to pay for more than just the physical costs of their travel. We should also expect them to pay for the congestion that they impose on other road users. The world of markets and pricing comes to the boring world of concrete and steel. Note to future engineers - - the future will involve variable pricing of just about everything. From parking, to water, to highways - - engineering needs to embrace a world of pricing algorithms. Those engineers that can develop and implement such algorithms will do very well.
De-Federalize Transport Spending - - Most forms of transport infrastructure overwhelming serve the residents of a single state. Yet the federal government has played an outsized role in funding transportation for 50-years. Would Detroit's People Mover have ever been built if the people of Detroit had to pay for it. Note to future engineers - - the fiscally constrainted world of our future will require use to come up with better ways to get $'s from A to C and not have to go thru B. From infrastructure funding to health care - - engineering the middle out of overly complex processes and structures will be critical.
Institutionalize Maintenance Funding - - Political leaders love to cut ribbons on new projects. No one really cares about the hard work of maintaining older infrastructure. The Highway Trust Fund should become solely a road and bridge fund - - a national "fix-it-first-policy" dedicated to the potholes of the nation. Note to future engineers - - the new stuff is cool, but figuring out ways to fix the old stuff is going to have high demand. Research and training $'s should be directed to the world of maintenance.
Promote Private-Public Partnerships - - The basic idea is that the government establishes the need for some new investment, and clears the political hurdles, but then takes bids from the private sector for construction and operation. This is closely linked to #1. Note to future engineers - - this is the new frontier. A certain kind of engineer will be needed with new skill sets - - the vision of developers, a firm understanding of the world of finance, a comfort level for the political jungle, a view of the big picture - - this is a huge jump up the value added chain.
Cherish the Bus - - Cars can't be the only answer for urban commuters, especially for poorer Americans during an era of high gas prices (have you checked the pumps lately?). Note to future engineers - - sharing resources is going to be in. The bus is one example (Zip Cars is another) . Buses can be a pleasant alternative, with televisions and Wi-Fi connectivity. Buses can also be laboratories for alternative energy sources - - like natural gas.
Split up the Port Authority - - I didn't understand this one. Note to future engineers - - NYC and many other global mega-cities are really complex. Those engineers that can fully understand the inner workings of these great giant cities will be at a premium.

Top Engineer

2012-02-16T21:12:00.000-06:00

Our chance for the big time - - http://pilgrimstudios.com/casting/topengineer/.

An additional $344 billion per year for infrastructure improvements

2012-02-16T01:55:00.002-06:00

ASCE's Infrastructure Report Card (2009) has 11 Ds in 15 infrastructure categories. The total bill for improving our national grade point average is roughly $2.2 trillion - - over $7,000 per person.

What if we could increase our national grade point average with a payback in a remarkable six or so years? What if we had an additional $300 billion per year to improve our bridges and expand our water resources? What about doing this with no new taxes or higher user fees? Sounds almost too good to be true.

The bridge in the picture is clearly in need of repair. The root cause of the problem however, is not politics, or inaction, or deficits, or poor construction. Most parts of our infrastructure woes start with us - - waiting in the drive thru at Taco Bell. According to economist Kenneth Trope, by 2018 the U.S. will spend an astonishing $344 billion per year treating obesity - - more than one health dollar out of every five. If our bridges are a D - - we are collectively an F on the health scale. Like our bridges and dams, we are not getting better with time. Y. Wang and his colleagues at the Johns Hopkins Medical School point out that based on current data, the unfeasible but likely outcome is that all American adults will be overweight or obese in 2048. Who pays? The same people that already have a bill for the $7,000.

The next bridge that goes down in a river, think to yourself - - was it a funding problem or too many trips to Taco Bell? In a world of shrinking and competing fiscal resources - - civilizations will be graded by their collective choices and decisions. Health care and infrastructure improvements are not two separate systems. Everything in a world of budget constraints is linked and tightly coupled - - if you consume excess fiscal resources in X, you will come up short in Y. Everyone is entitled to his or her own opinions, but not to his or her own facts. You can read the facts or go to the local mall and actually see the facts. Too many trips to the Taco Bell produces an unsupportable national burden on our economic well being - - this includes our national infrastructure.

MATHCOUNTS for AARP?

2012-02-15T07:25:00.001-06:00

Two observations - - (1.) Raising the retirement age could be a very bad idea, or (2.) The older you get the more you calculate problems on an "after-tax" basis.

Either way - - NSPE and their MATHCOUNTS competition have a perfect marketing opportunity in assisted-living centers.

How An Engineer Might Say Happy Valentine's Day

2012-02-14T07:21:00.001-06:00

OK, that is bad - - but not as bad as an economist.

Engineering and the other-directed personality type

2012-02-13T16:39:00.003-06:00

New York Times columnist David Brooks wrote last week (February 10, 2012) about the historical context of personality types - - The Crowd Pleaser. Brooks summarized the work of author David Riesman in his 1950 classic The Lonely Crowd. The central theme in the article and book is different eras nurture different personality types.

The industrial era favored the inner-directed personality type. The inner-directed person was guided by a set of strong internal convictions, like Victorian morality. The inner-directed person was a hardy pioneer, the stolid engineer or the resilient steelworker - - working on physical things. This person was often rigid, but also steadfast. This person was my grandfather farming 100 acres in central Missouri at the turn of the 20th century. Engineering in this era was always an inner-looking profession - - no environmental assessments, no public meetings, no complex network of stakeholders - - introverted people for an introverted process.

The other-directed personality type emerges in a service or information age economy. In this sort of economy, most workers are not working with physical things; they are manipulating people. The other-directed person becomes adept at pleasing others, at selling him or herself. The other-directed person is attuned to what other people want him or her to be. The other-directed person is a pliable member of a team and yearns for acceptance. He or she is less notable for having a rigid character than for having a smooth personality. Some of the other-directed world sounds shallow - - and it probably is to some degree. But the reality is we live in a madly complicated world where adapting to a changing world is a critical career skill. For better or for worse, the United States has been in a period of deindustrialization for the past 25-years - - we don't make things; we provide the global economy with services. Engineering, especially consulting engineers, is less about things and more about service. As you swim up the engineering value added chain, the journey becomes less about engineering and more about how well you manage and serve individuals and groups.

Engineering faces a transition - - from our inner-directed world of only things to a more other-directed world of intertwined complex problems that will require a combination of social skills/policies and innovative engineering. The word "combination" is important in this case where inner and other perspectives from individual engineers or teams of engineers will be critical. We need to blend our past collective personalities - - proudly pragmatic, problems-solving, unideological - - with a future of selling our ideas (e.g., more funding for public infrastructure and more freedom for public-private partnerships) and ourselves.

Engineering and the three laws of future employment

2012-02-12T07:51:00.004-06:00

I'll start off pre-Engineers Week (I did MathCounts yesterday at UTD so I got in the mood) with an article in Newgeography.com by Daniel Jelski - - The Three Laws of Future Employment. Jelski is a college educator - - Daniel Jelski became Dean of the School of Science and Engineering at the State University of New York at New Paltz in August 2007. He doesn't have specific recommendations, but what he calls "some boundaries on the path forward."

Jelski starts with his Three Laws of Future Employment - -

Law #1 - - People will get jobs doing things that computers can't do.
Law #2 - - A global market place will result in lower pay and fewer opportunities for many careers.
Law #3 - - Professional people will more likely be freelancers and less likely to have a steady job.

None of the three laws are terribly new or earth-shattering. What Jelski has done is spin the three laws in the context of STEM careers. Conventional wisdom has us entering a period of innovation renaissance. For example, we graduated 11,619 electrical engineers in 2009, about 50% the number of 25 years ago. This is seen as an example of the US falling behind in innovation and related technologies. Jelski has a very different point of view and the following commentary:

Some disciplines of engineering and activities are tradable in the world. In other words, the job is not location specific (e.g., cleaning toilets is location specific - - they cannot be cleaned in China). Engineering that falls under the tradable category is subject to Law #2.
Tradability is a function of Law #1 - - computers now do much of the work engineers used to do - - computers design circuits, do all the drafting, plan the manufacturing, etc. This would indicate the need for fewer STEM jobs, not more. Given Laws #1 and #2, do we really need national policies dictating the need to train an additional 10,000 engineers?
One outcome of Laws #1 and #2 is a path that takes us toward Law #3. People will always be employed in STEM disciplines, many of them highly paid, but they'll be paid for smarts rather than education. The issue is numbers - - who and how many engineers will fall into this highly paid category? The Internet has greatly reduced the transaction costs associated with a freelance economy - - the non-highly paid are subject to lower and lower transaction costs..
A key goal should be to add non-tradable skills to engineering and our core skill set. The attributes and elements that cannot be computerized. Empathy is one example - - the human-human interaction deeply embedded in engineering (adding more socio to the idea of sociotechnical engineers). Empathize if you can (or be subject to Laws #1, #2, and #3). Computers can't do that. Engineering jobs that involve empathy (and other things - - like being a keen observer of people or having a general curiosity about how the world works) will always be in high demand. And if you can do the non-tradable skill thing - - be sure and flaunt it. My laptop doesn't do "flaunt" at all!!

Tech tips from the etiquette experts

2012-02-11T11:00:00.000-06:00

From The netiquette of working life by Maija Palmer (February 7, 2012 Financial Times) - - tech tips from the etiquette experts:

Don't communicate electronically at the expense of personal interaction. There is a reason people often need to discuss things face-to-face - - human contact still matters.
Avoid typing your message in capital letters because CAPS ARE THE EQUIVALENT OF SHOUTING. Also beware of anger and frustration in the choice of words.
People in the flesh deserve more attention than a gadget, so whenever possible turn off your phone in social situations.
Don't put your phone on the dining table, or glance at it longingly mid-conversation.
Think of your texting as a conversation: If you would respond in the conversation, then respond in the text.
Don't post minute-by-minute updates to your relationship status. Out in the real world, relationships are subtle, complex and dynamic.
Unlike in email messages, it can be permissible to write real-time messages entirely or mainly in lower cased.
It is acceptable to use standard IM abbreviations, but be prepared to explain any that the other person doesn't understand.

The Search Engine for Engineering?

2012-02-11T05:49:00.000-06:00

This might be the answer - - WolframAlpha.

A Better Marketing Campaign

2012-02-10T09:00:00.002-06:00

Wastewater reuse will be a critical element in our global toolbox when it comes to the challenges of expanding our available water resources. Public acceptance will always be an issue. The solution rests with the two things the United States is really good at: World class engineering and world class marketing campaigns. The utilization and acceptance of wastewater as a drinking water source needs both innovation and a change in our social norms. Engineering alone is not the answer - - those engineers that can move from just "engineer" to "sociotechnical engineer" are going to do much better in a world searching for sustainable solutions.

What about t-shirts and mugs (and don't forget the bumper stickers) - - with the following:

Ten million dogs can't be wrong

The Car as Consumption Amplifier

2012-02-10T07:24:00.000-06:00

Interesting paragraph in David Owen's new book on the many paradoxes of sustainability - - The Conundrum (2012) - -

"The major carbon-spewing energy drain in a sprawling American suburb isn't the car in the driveway: it's the driveway. That is, it's everything the car makes both possible and necessary: the oversized house, the three-bay garage, the manicured yard, the unused swimming pool, the miles of connected asphalt, the redundant utilities, the schools, the hospitals, the shopping malls, and all the other accoutrements of inefficient suburban living - none of which would exist on anything like the same scale if residents were less able to move around at will. Cars are consumption amplifiers; driving is the pump that enlarges the sprawl balloon. and countries with rapidly modernizing economies, like China and India, are now following the American mobility example at extraordinary speed, by acquiring new cars and building new roads at a pace seldom matches even in the United States. It will be a while before those countries overtake Americans in impact per capita, but in absolute numbers they have already begun to make us look demure. And, as with us, the main driving-related environmental impacts will always to the indirect ones."

HAL Comes To Energy-Savings Software

2012-02-09T18:03:00.003-06:00

Companies like Viridity Energy will play a key role increasing the energy efficiency of the vertical parts of our economy (for buildings, energy represents the second or third largest expense). Viridity Energy develops sophisticated software - - located in Philadelphia and backed by $24 million in VC dollars. Maybe not HAL in the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968), but this is software that turns the skyscraper into a "thinking structure" in the context of energy management.

The software works with the building or factory's energy systems - - monitor and control functions for heating, cooling, appliances, and generators. The operating algorithm constantly checks with the variables that affect how much a building or facility pays for energy. These variables include the price of electricity and weather forecasts (which cause price spikes). The software is smart - - it knows which rooms of a building are better insulated than others and makes adjustments. If electricity prices rise, the software automatically reduces heat in the law library for example (books trap a lot of warmth). If a facility has a source of energy (e.g., solar panels) - - the software also lets facilities sell their excess energy back to the grid.

So if you are in a building and hear, "Affirmative, Dave, it's a good time to sell electricity," it might be the building talking to you.

Engineering Relationship Building

2012-02-08T17:50:00.000-06:00

I loved this in Reid Hoffman's (founder of LinkedIn) book except (The Start-Up of You: Adapt to the Future, Invest in Yourself, and Transform Your Career) in the February 6, 2012 issue of Fortune:

"Building a genuine relationship with another person depends on at least two abilities. The first is seeing the world from another person's perspective. No one knows that better than the skilled entrepreneur. Entrepreneurs succeed when they make stuff people will pay money for - and that means understanding what's going on in the heads of customers. Likewise, in relationships it's only when you put yourself in the other person's shoes that you begin to develop an honest connection.

The second ability is being able to think about how you can collaborate with and help the other person rather than thinking about what you can get. We're not suggesting that you be so saintly that a self-interested thought never crosses your mind. What we're saying is that your first move should always be to help. A study on negotiation found that a key difference between skilled and average negotiators was the time spend searching for shared interests and asking questions of the other person."

eWeatherRisk

2012-02-07T18:14:00.002-06:00

Extreme weather potential this century is creating a niche market for weather related derivatives. Energy companies are still the biggest users of weather trades and contracts based on temperatures. Look for other contract variables - - rainfall, snow, and sunshine (renewables, such as solar power or wind related contracts for wind farms are examples) tailored to meet customers' specific needs. Farmers are an obvious potential customer of weather-risk reduction financial service products. So are engineers - - big construction companies with tight deadlines and costly penalty causes could consider turning to weather derivatives as our weather gets more extreme and unpredictable.

eWeatherRisk is an example of an online firm that can offer small businesses simple and relatively cheap weather-risk coverage.

System Dynamics

2012-02-06T06:20:00.000-06:00

System dynamics modeling is an important technique for analyzing the temporaility of complex systems. It is a method that engineers can apply to many situations that require complex temporality and causality analyses.

Many of the systems engineers design are subject to dynamic complexity (engineers are also faced with combinatorial complexity - - finding the best solution out of an astronomical number of combinations). Dynamic complexity arises from the interactions among the agents over time. A simple model of the automobile market contains dynamic complexity. New car inventory, late model cars on the road, inventory coverage, average trade-in time, the attractiveness of new cars, and the late model car inventory provide a complex "stock and flow perspective" over time.

One of the best books on the business side of the system dynamics subject is Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World (2000) by John D. Sterman. Sterman explains that dynamic complexity arises because systems are:

Dynamic - - Heracilitus said, "All is change." What appears to be unchanging is, over a longer time time horizon, seen to vary. Change is systems occurs at many time scales, and these different scales sometimes interact. A star evolves over billions of years as it burns it hydrogen fuel, then explode as a supernova in seconds. Bull markets can go on for years, then crash in a matter of hours.
Tightly Coupled - - The actors in the system interact strongly with one another and with the natural world. Everything is connected to everything else. As a famous bumper sticker from the 1960s proclaimed, "You can't do just one thing."
Governed By Feedback - - Because of the tight couplings among actors, our actions feed back on themselves. Our decisions alter the state of the world, causing changes in nature and triggering others to act, thus giving rise to a new situation which then influences our next decisions. Dynamics arise from these feedbacks.
Nonlinear - - Effect is rarely proportional to cause, and what happens locally in a system (near the current operating point) often does not apply in distant regions (other states of the system). Nonlinearity often arises from the basic physics of systems: Insufficient inventory may cause you to boost production, but production can never fall below zero no matter how much excess inventory you have. Nonlinearity also arises as multiple factors interact in decision making: Pressure from the boss for greater achievement increases your motivation and effort - up to the point where you perceive the goal to be impossible. Frustration then dominates motivation and you give up or get a new boss.
History-Dependent - - Taking one road often precludes taking others and determines where you end up (path dependence). Many actions are irreversible: You can't unscramble an egg (the second law of thermodynamics). Stocks and flows (accumulations) and long time delays often mean doing and undoing fundamentally different time constraints: During the 50 years of the Cold War arms race the nuclear nations generated more than 250 tons of weapons-grade plutonium. The half life is about 24,000 years.
Self-Organizing - - The dynamics of systems arise spontaneously from their internal structure. Often, small, random perturbations are amplified and molded by the feedback structure, generating patterns in space and time and creating path dependence. The pattern of stripes on a zebra, the rhythmic contraction of your heart, the persistent cycles in the real estate market, and structures such as sea shells and markets all emerge spontaneously from the feedbacks among the agents and elements of the system.
Adaptive - - The capabilities and decision rules of the agents in complex systems change over time. Evolution leads to selection and proliferation of some agents while others become extinct. Adaptation also occurs as people learn from experience, especially as they learn new ways to achieve their goals in the face of obstacles. Learning is not always beneficial, however.
Counterintuitive - - In complex systems cause and effect are distant in time and space while we tend to look for causes near the events we seek to explain. Our attention is drawn to the symptoms of difficulty rather than the underlying cause. High leverage policies are often not obvious.
Policy Resistant - - The complexity of the systems in which we are embedded overwhelms our ability to understand them. The result: Many seemingly obvious solutions to problems fail or actually worsen the situation.
Characterized By Trade-offs - - Time delays in feedback channels mean the long-run responses of a system to an intervention is often different from its short-run response. High leverage policies often cause worse-before-better behavior, while low leverage policies often generate transitory improvement before the problem grows worse.

Two sides of the same coin

2012-02-05T07:58:00.002-06:00

Two important articles yesterday from two very different newspapers. The first article was written by Keslie Kaufman and Kate Zernike of the New York Times. The article, Activists Fight Green Projects, Seeing U.N. Plot, explores the Tea Party's opposition to sustainability and green projects. From the Maine Tea-Party backed governor canceling a project to ease congestion along Route 1 corridor (the Tea Party claimed it was part of a U.N. plot) to opposition to a high-speed train line in Florida - - opposition to sustainability (or progress for that matter) reduces to a rather simple equation. Sustainability = socialism and if you are part of a transit planning organization and you have your national conference in San Francisco on May 1, that = Communism.

The article highlighted the plight of the Roanoke County Va. Board of Supervisors as they voted down $1,200 in dues to a nonprofit that consults on sustainability issues. As one of the supervisors observed in the article - -

"The Tea Party people say they want nonpolluted air and clean water and everything we promote and support, but they also say it's a communist movement," said Charlotte Moore, a supervisor who voted yes, "I really don't understand what they want."

The second article is by David Owen in the Wall Street Journal - - It's Too Easy Being Green. Owen is also the author of The Conundrum: How Scientific Innovation, Increased Efficiency, and Good Intentions Can Make Our Energy and Climate Problems Worse. The issue boils down to this - - if next week we can all drive cars that get a 100 MPG, what will we do with those apparent savings? A portion of the population will consume their efficiency savings - - either drive more, buy an additional car, and/or buy a bigger house farther from work (I covered this issue previously in The Jevons Principle).

Owen writes the following - -

"Even if you think that climate change is a left-wing crock, this ought to be a matter of gnawing concern. Global energy use is growing faster than population. It's expected to double by midcentury, and most of the growth will be fossil fuel. Disasters like the BP oil spill attract world-wide attention, but the main environmental, economic, and geopolitical challenge with petroleum isn't the oil that goes into the ocean; it is the oil we continue to use as we intend.

Many people assume that we'll conquer our addiction through technological innovation. But engineering breakthroughs not only enable machines to do more work with less fuel; they also make it possible to manufacture new and desirable products, swelling our contentment as consumers and further increasing our dependence."

In the middle of this two sided coin, one side representing the politics of sustainability and the other side the economic realities of sustainability, rests engineering. The two sides represent the social and technical dimensions of a huge and complex global issue. The key thing is that neither technical or social measures alone will suffice in effectively tackling the problem. Just the word "engineering" alone seems very inadequate in this century. Our collective success depends on the concept of "sociotechnical engineering" being recognized widely in the profession and the people we serve. The sociotechnical issues emerging in cities and countries will need novel combinations of sophisticated technology coupled with intelligently novel social policy and incentive approaches.

The profitability of 20%

2012-02-04T10:07:00.000-06:00

Google allows engineers to work on projects of their choosing one day a week. Known as the 20% Project - - most companies and managers would probably not allow 3% Projects let alone 20%. Risk, uncertainty, a lack of control, concerns about accountability - - innovation is about taking risks (calculated risks in most cases) that most organizations are unwilling or unable to accept.

Not much of a risk for Google - - it's been reported that over half of Google's revenue now comes from the ideas that began as 20% time projects.

The Ownership Thing

2012-02-04T07:30:00.001-06:00

Katherine Hays is the CEO of GenArts, a visual effects technology company headquartered in Cambridge, Mass. She offers the following comments on creating a culture of ownership:

It comes back to the ownership thing. If you're really the owner of a piece of work, you're actually excited about the feedback because it's going to help you improve what you're doing. I think you have to have a culture where being wrong is O.K. - - at least during the process - - so that people can say, O.K., I got this piece wrong, but now I've corrected it and we're moving forward to a better answer.

And then it also goes back to hiring. You want to hire people who are really strong at what they do, and very confident - - but not overly confident, but I've found that the more talented people are, the more comfortable they are it they find out they are wrong. They have a lot more humility. So they're much more receptive to correcting things when someone else points out a way to improve.

Your business model as counterinsurgency warfare

2012-02-03T17:48:00.000-06:00

The U.S. Army / Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual (with a forward by General David H. Petraeus, Lt. General James F. Amos and Lt. Colonel John A. Nagel) has had a profound impact on combat operations in both Iraq and Afghanistan. The manual is the guiding light as to how the United States military plans to address what is likely to be the dominant form of warfare over the next decade.

The main themes in the manual also provide an interesting and insightful way to view business in the era of mega-corporations and intense global competition. Consider the following examples - -

Secure and Serve the Population - - Counterinsurgency is more about the human terrain and less about the geographical terrain. People are the center of gravity. Trust is the most important element. Business needs to embrace this model - - your success depends on how you lead and manage your human capital. Communication, training, institutional knowledge development, trust - - all of these elements provide the foundation of your human terrain map.
Live With the People - - You don't commute to the fight in Afghanistan. Bases are in strategic locations and boots are on the ground. Too often businesses, especially those that compete on a global basis, seem to exist in a layer of the atmosphere above the fray of everyday life. Your employees and customers live in communities and neighborhoods that you have responsibility for. Get people out to embrace the micro-parts of your business - - become an important part of the local community. Volunteer and help - - put boots on the ground in your local communities.
Pursue the Enemy Relentlessly - - Counterinsurgency is getting your teeth in to the enemy and not letting go. Target the whole network, not just individuals. The word "Enemy" doesn't apply - - but "getting your teeth in" does. The term gets at the heart of individual and organization persistence - - the ability to persist long enough to penetrate a complicated world. The new world of hyper-competition is clearly a world of ruthless relentlessness.
Walk - - Stop by, don't drive by. Patrol on foot whenever possible and engage the population. Take off your sunglasses. Walk with you customers. See the world through their eyes. See their problems. Hear their goals. Listen and learn. The walk provides the link between sensing and knowing. Interact face-to-face - - e-mail doesn't work in a counterinsurgency environment.
Be First With the Truth - - Get accurate information to the chain of command. Preempt rumors. Acknowledge setbacks and failures. Social media has changed and will continue to change businesses. Our networked world has created a new, and to many a frightening world, that is much more transparent and open than 10-years ago. Social media provides a platform for the flow of both good and bad information at the speed of light. Managing "truth" will be increasingly important.
Live Our Values - - Stay true to the values we hold dear. This is what distinguishes us from our enemies. Organizational values are important, but more importantly in the context of counterinsurgency warfare are individual character strengths and virtues. Individuals and organizations must increasingly define character as something beyond what someone does not do - - to a much more active and thorough definition. Character defines the individual and thus the organization.

Autonomic Materials

2012-02-03T17:38:00.000-06:00

Interesting company and idea - - Autonomic Materials. Self-healing materials, like paint. Buy the new Honda and park it in the shopping mail and you receive the ding in your door before you get the new car smell out. In the future the ding or scratch "heals" itself. Even more in the future, maybe the area around your car scratch actually grows new "skin." Developed by aerospace engineering professor Scott White of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

It's Both Who and What That Matters

2012-02-03T06:18:00.002-06:00

The Start-up of You: Adapt to the Future, Invest in Yourself and Transform your Career (2012) by Reid Hoffman (Who is the founder of LinkedIn. He also has a degree from Stanford in "Symbolic Systems" - - sort of a mash-up of computer science, computing, and human intelligence. Scott Forstall, the youngest executive at Apple and head of their mobile software division has the same degree) and Ben Casnocha. I have read three or four reviews of the book just this week alone. Richard Waters, in his February 2, 2012 Financial Times review boiled the networked-who-you-know-really-matters-world down to an easy to understand paragraph:

"The premise is simple: is a world which job security has become a thing of the past, who you know is more important than it ever has been. And with a host of new online tools to help establish your identity and connect with people who might further your interests, to remain un-networked is to risk being excluded from the modern working world."

Super Bowl Quote of the Week

2012-02-02T17:41:00.001-06:00

From Robert Kraft, owner of the Patriots, in this week's Sports Illustrated (Kraftwork):

"The key to life is you try to see things other people can't see. This league is set up for everyone to go 8-8. How do you differentiate? You have to be bold in any business and do things you take a lot of criticism for but you believe are right."

The pictures in the lobby

2012-02-02T06:44:00.000-06:00

Interesting observation from Harry West, CEO of Continuum, an innovation design consulting firm, on the pictures in your company's lobby:

"I think in most companies you're surrounded by the past, because you can look back and see what you have done. You may have a Web site or archives or a lobby that sort of shows off your work. The future is not as tangible, so there's always a tendency for people to go: "Well, I know the business we're in because I see it every day. That's the business we're in, right?" Well, that was the business you were in. Right now we are in the process of inventing the business we will be in. When people see that, it takes off. But until people can see it, until it's in some way real and relevant to them, they don't know what they can do to be part of it."

What the Web has given us - -

2012-02-01T06:29:00.000-06:00

From the The Economist's Intelligent Life (January/February 2012) by Samantha Weinberg, What's the Greatest Invention of all Time - -

"The web has transformed at least a dozen fields: education, news, book publishing, music, finance, networking, dating, charity donations, shopping, language-learning, cartography, medicine, hypochondria and the way we talk to friends. But above all it has framed the movement for democratic change in countries whose inhabitants used to be hobbled by the fear that they were alone. The web enabled them to reach out, find support at home and abroad, and muster the courage to overthrow their tyrants. It helped them bring in the promise, at least, of a brighter dawn. Ask a young Egyptian, Tunisian or Libyan to name the greatest invention, and they might well choose the world wide web."

Google interview question of the week

2012-01-31T17:41:00.000-06:00

What's the next number in this sequence - - 10, 9, 60, 90, 70, 66 . . .?

The Petraeus Way

2012-01-30T18:48:00.001-06:00

Another good book out on General David Petraeus - - All In: The Education of General David Petraeus (2012) by Paula Broadwell and Vernon Loeb. The book details "The Petraeus Way" in the context of strategy development. He feels that strategic leaders and thinkers need to engage in four strategic tasks. These are:

Getting the big ideas right - - Counterinsurgency in Iraq was the big idea, and the big idea was right.
Effectively communicating the big ideas - - Petraeus is a master of communicating via all the media mediums and with Congress. To quote the General - - "The enemy has to know we have the will to prevail."
Overseeing the implementation of the big ideas - - Execution, Execution, and more Execution. "Those on the ground must have all the support they need when they are in a tough situation."
Capturing best practices and lessons and cycling them back through the system to help refine the big ideas - - Sort of the three "Ls" - - Listen, Learn, Lead. Then you recycle.

Infrastructure improvements and the need for speed

2012-01-29T08:57:00.002-06:00

One thing should be clear to the voting public and political aristocracy (and is probably not). In the Age of Globalization and complex distribution chains - - the adequacy of public infrastructure is going to matter more. Where the word "more" is not linear - - "more" is exponential.

The current issue of the Economist highlights this in California Ports: The fickle Asian container. Improvements to the Panama Canal will change the speed and efficiency equation in such a way that it provides opportunity to the East and Gulf coasts and produces risk at West coast port operations. The article states the following:

"The risk comes from the Panama Canal, which the Panamanians are digging wider and deeper. In an inexorable shipbuilding trend, each generation of freighters is larger than the previous one. So the canal today accommodates only ships that carry up to about 5,000 containers, whereas large freighters already carry 12,000, and the largest carry even more. This is why it is currently best to move a box form Guangdong Providence to New York by floating it to Los Angeles or Long Beach, then putting it on a train. But the digging in Panama is about to change the calculations."

Improvements to the canal (and dredging projects in the port cities of Miami, Savannah, and Charleston) have created a new matrix that makes the "unload in LA and ship to NY" slower. This is the important part - - innovation in products such as the iPhone and innovation in the Apple production/supply chain need to be matched by innovations in the supporting infrastructure. From automated loading/unloading port facilities, to faster rail networks, to deep and modern ports - - the future should be rather obvious. You cannot invest and innovate only on the product side of the equation. To remain competitive on a global scale, a country also requires investment and innovation in infrastructure. Where some of the infrastructure is public infrastructure.

The future belongs to the swift and creative - - where the swift and creative are good at working around bottlenecks and cutting regions and countries out of the logistics picture.

A Future That Needs A National Plan

2012-01-28T19:36:00.001-06:00

The Winter 2011 issue of The Bridge has a special issue on sustainable water resources. One particular article, A Plea for a Coordinated National Water Policy by Gerald E. Galloway Jr., should be read by all water resource planners and engineers.

Provided below is a list of our national water challenges outlined in The Bridge:

In 2002, 49% of the US was experiencing moderate to severe drought. Since then, drought has become commonplace in many more places across the country - - Texas and the Southwest are prime examples. Like many parts of the Southwest, Texas faces a future of population growth and limited water supplies.
The 1970s goal of providing fishable, swimmable, and drinkable water throughout the nation have never been realized. We have yet been able to deal with the problem of nonpoint-source pollution.
Over the last five decades, average annual flood damage has increased in spite of significant federal investment in structural and non-structural programs to reduce flood risk and lessen the impact of flooding when it occurs.
Much of the U.S. inland waterway infrastructure is outdated and appreciably slows barge traffic. In addition, many ports, harbors, and channels are not competitive in today's deep-draft shipping environment.
Riverine and coastal ecosystems remain at risk as floodplains and wetlands are subject to increasing pressure by developers or are disappearing as a result of anthropogenic activities that have undermined their stability.
Human activities over the last century have severely damaged ecosystems in many places in the United States, including the Everglades, coastal Louisiana, the Chesapeake Bay, the upper Mississippi and Missouri Rivers, and the California Bay Delta.
Lack of understanding of the water-energy nexus (this is a huge problem in my opinion). Water needs energy and energy needs water. We unfortunately continue to treat these as two separate systems.
Groundwater provides 18% of the nation's urban water supply, yet we are a long way from understanding and protecting this valuable water resource.
We don't do watershed planning. Projects and resources are not identified and deployed on a watershed or basin level.
Texas and Oklahoma are slowly marching toward prolonged litigation around interstate water rights. Management of interstate waters is problematic - - decisions are frequently made by judges and courts without any knowledge or background in water resources planning.
The ASCE grade tells us a lot - - a D or D- in the water infrastructure sections. Funding is short to the tune of nine zeros.
The United States has not undertaken a comprehensive water assessment since 1976. We have a complete lack of knowledge regarding the current conditions.

Management Strategy Development and Gamification

2012-01-27T18:49:00.001-06:00

Look to a future in both engineering and management where software written for the games industry is put to more serious uses - - the "gamification" of key organizational processes.

Andrew Hill in his Financial Times On Management column (Great gifts for all the managers in your life - - December 20, 2011) came up with his own management tool for the Era of Gamification:

"Call of Duty: Modern Strategy 3. Available in Wii, Xbox, PS3, S&P 500, and FTSE 100 formats, the new edition of the most popular console game in corporate history, does not disappoint! In single-player mode, you can still lead your company to world domination, while taking over weaker rivals and destroying new entrants - - all against an apocalyptic backdrop of burning platforms and bleeding-edge technology. The real excitement is in the online multiplayer version, however, where you'll be forced to collaborate with people you've never heard of, from places you've never visited, or face bankruptcy or worse (NB: 18 certificate - - strategy is not for the squeamish.)"

The Mozart of Modernism

2012-01-26T21:29:00.001-06:00

A new documentary is out on famed British architect Norman Foster - - How Much Does Your Building Weigh, Mr. Foster?

Finding Your Extra

2012-01-26T21:28:00.004-06:00

Friedman is correct, Average Is Over (Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times January 25, 2012 - - Average Is Over). His column is not targeted at engineers - - but engineers would be wise to read and understand the implications - - whether your collar is blue or white, the Age of Average has/is ending.

"In the past, workers with average skills, doing an average job, could earn an average lifestyle. But, today, average is officially over. Being average just won’t earn you what it used to. It can’t when so many more employers have so much more access to so much more above average cheap foreign labor, cheap robotics, cheap software, cheap automation and cheap genius. Therefore, everyone needs to find their extra — their unique value contribution that makes them stand out in whatever is their field of employment. Average is over."

Engineering, Solitude, and the Power of Introverts

2012-01-26T19:03:00.001-06:00

Interesting article in the January 15, 2012 issue of the New York Times - - The Rise of the New Groupthink. The piece is by Susan Cain, and her book Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World that Can't Stop Talking. Collaboration is in - - but the power and importance of introverts and solitude should not be forgotten. Remember Picasso's observation - - "Without great solitude, no serious work is possible."

Cain writes the following:

"But even if the problems are different, human nature remains the same. And most humans have two contradictory impulses: we love and need one another, yet we crave privacy and autonomy.

To harness the energy that fuels both these drives, we need to move beyond the New Groupthink and embrace a more nuanced approach to creativity and learning. Our offices should encourage casual, cafe-style interactions, but allow people to disappear into personalized, private spaces when they want to be alone. Our schools should teach children to work with others, but also to work on their own for sustained periods of time. And we must recognize that introverts like Steve Wozniak need extra quiet and privacy to do their best work."

Engineering is one of the professions that needs extra quiet time - - and an appreciation of introverts.

The Seven Deadly Sins of Innovation

2012-01-25T18:06:00.001-06:00

The "Seven Deadly Sins of Innovation" from The Little Black Book of Innovation by Scott D. Anthony -

Pride - - Forcing your view on the marketplace won't work. You need a customer-centric starting point to ensure and understanding of what customers want and a broad understanding of what may affect the market's future.
Sloth - - Paying lip service to innovation by not giving people the resources and room they need to create something different.
Gluttony - - Being the market leader often leads to resting on your laurels.
Lust - - Pursuing too many bright, shiny ideas generally means that resources will be spread too thin to turn any of them into reality. You must prioritize, but don't just think short term.
Envy - - Creating an "us versus them" relationship between core business and growth opportunities makes it difficult for either to focus on their business. Encourage both by celebrating their wins together.
Wrath - - Innovation involves risk. Without failure there can be no success. Punishing the risk takers keeps people in their comfort zones.
Greed - - Putting profits first in the innovative process usually "leads to prioritizing low-potential markets." Growth requires patience.

Weeding Out

2012-01-25T16:22:00.000-06:00

Interesting post - - Do STEM Faculties Want Undergraduates To Study STEM Fields?.

Your Life-Cycle and Carbon Dioxide

2012-01-24T18:34:00.003-06:00

Important numbers of the week (the best number of the week could be that Newt Gingrich has more ex-wives than all the previous U.S. presidents combined) in this week's Economist (How to cut carbon emissions: Demography and climate change) - -

Carbon footprints are a function of age - - average spending patterns vary over a lifetime.
Consumption as a fraction of household spending typically peaks when people are in their 20s.
Not surprising - - old people drive less. Clothes spending peaks in (most) people's 40s and declines thereafter.
Americans' emissions per head rise sharply until they reach their early 20s - - the increase continues more slowly until people are in their mid 60s.
In their early 20s, Americans produce less than 10 tonnes of carbon dioxide a years, at the peak in their early 60s, they produce 15 tonnes.
As developing countries age - - this should be good news. But, this is not until people hit their mid 60s - - and the next decade will have a huge increase in the 60 to 64 age group.
In 2020 America, there will be 2,400,000 more people aged 75 to 79 than at present; but there will be 4,400,000 more 60 to 64 year olds.
The benefits of an aging global population kick in around 2050.

Engineering and our expanding -ilities

2012-01-23T17:42:00.004-06:00

Engineering requires a clear understanding of the -ilities - - the desired properties of a system or product. Historically our list of ilities have been the wide impacts that stakeholders have demanded - - things like quality, reliability, usability, and maintainability.

The list of desired properties will continue to expand (and many properties may not end in ility!!). Here is a list of the properties that may become increasingly important in the future - -

Usability or operability - - These are old ilities, but increasingly complex systems will require a greater focus and appreciation of human factors and ergonomics-type issues.
Flexibility - - The ability to change into different configurations that allow a particular system to perform multiple functions.
Extensibility - - The ability to take small networks and expand them into larger ones.
Resilience - - Not a pure ilities, but critical in a high-risk world. Resilience is the degree to which a system can recover quickly from a major disruption while regaining - - or even exceeding - - its original level.
Interoperability - - A system property that allows a particular system or product to function independently in their own right but can also work together as a larger whole, even if they are owned and operated by different entities and were not designed originally to work together.
Compatibility - - How well components of the system can be connected and work together.
Modularity - - The ability to pull systems apart and then put them back together again.
Sustainability - - The capacity for a system to endure. In the case of our earth system - - it is the long-term maintenance of responsibility (our very first ility!!).

Olivier L. de Weck, Daniel Roos, and Christopher L. Magee have a great book that covers this subject in much greater detail - - Engineering Systems: Meeting Human Needs in a Complex Technological World (2011). The graphic in Chapter 4 (Figure 4.4) illustrates the correlation network of ilities - - very interesting!

Noah and Innovation

2012-01-22T08:13:00.001-06:00

Sometimes tragedy breeds innovation and triumph. The tsunami in Japan last year is a good example - - where engineers have been hard at work at coming up with an individual survival/escape pod.

Dubbing its survival shelter Noah, Cosmo Power describes it as a modern, miniature version of Noah’s Ark. The pod is large enough to hold four adults, floats in water and is made of enhanced fiberglass, which the company says is strong enough to withstand tsunamis, earthquakes, even hurricanes. Breathing holes on top and a small lookout window add to the comfort.

Innovative design should break away existing forms, and demonstrate three characteristics:

Novelty - - The result of innovative design is different from all previously existing products.
Value - - The value of innovative design is related to a human purpose, and should be judged by the customer and society.
Commercialization - - Innovative design is distinguished from the term creative design because it involves commercial transactions.

Napoleon on Chaos

2012-01-21T02:53:00.002-06:00

Interesting piece in Luke Johnson's January 18, 2012 Financial Times column - - Spotting winners is not always rational:

The difference between victory and failure in commercial affairs is not random but is nevertheless heavily subject to chance and human factors such as management ability and general sentiment. Judging risk is as much an art as a science, and external influences - from interest rates to commodity prices to competitive activity - will often decide whether a venture succeeds or fails.

In hindsight winning investment decisions appear rational and prophetic, while poor ones seem stupid. This impression is often false. But as Napoleon said: "The battlefield is a scene of constant chaos. The winner will be the one who controls that chaos."

Discipline, astute timing, product financing and a sensible level of diversification may well prevent you from becoming a big winner, but will also probably ensure you do not join the ranks of the epic losers - such as entrepreneur Sean Quinn, a few years ago Ireland's richest man and now the biggest bankrupt.

The key is always the starting definition

2012-01-20T18:01:00.001-06:00

Interesting observation in Tyler Cowen's blog (Marginal Revolution) this week:

Krueger’s claim of a shrinking middle class relies on the same peculiar definition. Specifically, “middle class” is defined as having a household income at least half of median income but no more than 1.5 times the median. I re-ran the numbers using the same definition and data source as Krueger and found that the entire reason the middle class has “shrunk” is that more households today have incomes that put them above middle class. That’s right, the share of households with income that puts them in the middle class or higher was 76 percent in 1970 and 75 percent in 2010—two figures that are statistically indistinguishable. For that matter, I am not discovering fire here; Third Way made the same point in early 2007 (page 7). A shrinking middle class is only a problem if it reflects fewer people reaching the middle class.

Your high school Latin lesson and complexity

2012-01-19T20:01:00.002-06:00

Understanding engineering system complexity starts with a definition. The English word "complex"has two Latin roots - - com (meaning "together") and plectere (meaning "to weave" or "to braid"). The Latin roots begin to illustrate the story of the modern engineered system - - a story of intertwined elements affecting and depending on one another. A story that begins with the braiding of scale, function, structure, and temporality in engineering systems - - and sometimes ends in a God awful mess.

The changing language of engineering

2012-01-19T07:27:00.001-06:00

A great column by Charles M.West, President of the National Academy of Engineering, in the Winter 2011 issue of The Bridge (Engineers: The Next Generation. Do We Need More? Who Will They Be? What Will They Do?). West highlights the language of engineering - - past and present. Words that will always be embedded in the vocaluary of engineering include the following:

Force
Size
Modulus
Temperature
Speed
Tolerance
Voltage
Precision

West also points out the new words he is hearing in the context of engineering. Words that make up the language of engineering systems. Words that help to define our interconnected and interactive world. Words that help to integrate what engineers know and can do with what social scientists, management experts, policy makers, citizen groups, lawyers, and politicians know and can do. The words that will define our future - -

Scale
State
Integration
Resilience
Affordability
Scope
Complexity
Architecture
Evolution
Social Context

The XM25 Rifle

2012-01-18T04:53:00.003-06:00

The U.S. Army is testing a new rifle in Afghanistan. Known as the XM25, the new gun weighs about 13 pounds and fires a 25 mm round. The truly innovative idea embedded in the rifle is the bullet. Instead of having to aim directly at Mr. Taliban, the round need only be aimed at a place in proximity to Mr. Taliban. Once there, it explodes and the fragments kill Mr. Taliban. It knows when to explode because of a timed fuse - - a small computer inside the bullet monitor details of the projectile's flight. Each rifle bullet is programmed before it is fired by a second computer in the rifle itself. To determine the distance to the target, the gunman shines a laser rangefinder attached to the rifle at whatever is shielding the enemy.

So the world of bits and bytes, lines of code, and computers has come to the simple bullet. When IT makes it to the bullet - - you have to wonder how and when it comes to everything else. The next time you drive across the bridge near your home - - think about where, how, why, and when you could start to see lines of codes in the "simple bridge." Sure, your car is full of software, but what about the pavement you drive on? You might have a smart water meter powered by software - - but the water lines are void of any lines of code and are pretty dumb.

If we can embed bullets with software and make them smarter - - it seems to me that we have a very long list of everyday products and public infrastructure in need of smarts supported by lines of code and algorithms.

The Engineer as 1 Percenter

2012-01-17T03:29:00.009-06:00

The New York Times on Sunday (January 15, 2012) has an interesting graphic - - The Jobs With the Most 1 Percenters. The diagram shows occupations where workers are most likely to rank in the nation's economic top one percent (defined as workers in households with a pretax income of $380,000, excluding capital gains). The diagram also illustrates the estimated absolute numbers of one percenters in the selected categories. A sampling is provided below - -

Physicians 192,269 (the largest group and good luck with ideas of lowering the cost of health care and improving system performance)
CEO and public administrators 161,069 (includes many engineers)
Lawyers 145,564
Recreation workers 10,594 (my first job was as a "recreation worker" at $1.45 per hour)
Airplane pilots and navigators 3,054 (some one percenters love unions)
Athletes, sports instructors and officials 10,354
Financial services and sales 36,530 (selling the product is better than the results of the product)
Petroleum, mining and geological engineers 1,830
Architects 6,973 (like actors, talent based occupation with the top of the profession doing very well)
Veterinarians 3,960 (spay and neuter has more value than pumping oil?)
Sales engineers 705
Announcers 1,285
Accountants and auditors 61,033 (a million pages of tax code and a difficult CPA exam helps)
Dentists 26,875 (don't point this out when in the chair)
Podiatrists 1,040

Top Graphs of 2011

2012-01-16T17:01:00.001-06:00

BBC poll from economists - - their view of the top financial and economics graphs of 2011.

Design for Flexibility

2012-01-15T08:46:00.000-06:00

Engineering has never been a linear profession. We are subject to constant change - - where recently change has been exponential in nature. The elements of change that most impacts engineering comes from many different avenues. These include economic crises, political shifts, new technologies, new discoveries, and new market shifts. In 2011, we say huge changes and "trend-busters" in all five areas. The challenge for engineering, given rapid change and uncertainty, is knowing what to build, at what time (engineers from Apple to Fluor face this same challenge - - it is universal to engineering).

We cannot know what will happen in the the future (remember the old Russian saying - - "Those who try and predict the future never get rich") - - yet we seem fixed on a mindset of "design to specification" or "design to present requirement." Many of our current methods do not deal effectively with the notion of rapid and complex change. Engineers could greatly improve results by recognizing that the future is inevitably uncertain and that by creating flexible designs that can adapt to eventualities. Considerable value can be derived from engineering focused on "designing for variation."

Designing based on "Master Plans" will seem rigid and deterministic in a era of flexible designs. The reality of rapid change needs an environment of "intelligent management" - - flexible design anticipates and plans for a range of possible futures. Flexible designing will enable system owners and managers the opportunity to respond easily and cost-effectively to changing circumstances.

Richard de Neufville and Stefan Scholtes have an excellent book on the subject - - Flexibility in Engineering Design (2011).

Understanding and preparing for the worst

2012-01-14T05:24:00.004-06:00

This weeks Economist has a couple of outstanding articles on the current state of natural disasters - - The rising cost of catastrophes: How to limit the damage that natural disasters do and Counting the cost of calamities. The summary paints the picture - - "Death rates from natural disasters are falling; and fears that they have become more common are misplaced. But their economic cost is rising relentlessly."

Key points in the two articles include the following:

The October 2011 Bangkok ("Venice of Asia") floods cost $40 billion, the most expensive disaster in the country's history. J.P. Morgan estimates that it set back global industrial production by 2.5%.
Munich Re has estimated that disaster economic costs were $378 billion last year - - up from the previous 2005 high of $262 billion (in constant 2011 dollars).
The world has succeeded in making natural disasters less deadly, through better early-warning systems for tsunamis, better public information about evacuation plans, tougher building codes in quake-prone areas and encouragement for homeowners to adopt simple precautions such as installing tornado proof rooms in their homes.
Even if natural disasters may be no more common and no more likely to kill people than before, there is no doubt that their economic cost is rising. One key fact - - a growing share of the world's population and economic activity is being concentrated in disaster-prone places: on tropical coasts and river deltas, near forests and along earthquakes fault lines.
Throughout the west and southwest, encroaching suburbia has put pressure on forest managers to suppress fires as quickly as possible. Yet repeated fire suppression allows forests to accumulate more fuel which can lead to more intense and devastating fires later on.
The U.S. coastal regions may be a microcosm of where the world is headed - - $10 trillion in insured assets alone the coast from Maine to the Florida panhandle. In terms of population growth - - Florida had a population of 2.8 million in 1950 - - 2011 was 19 million. Two facts regarding where we like to work and live - - around water and trees.
By 2070, seven of the ten greatest urban concentrations of economic assets that are exposed to coastal flooding will be in the developing world - - none was in 2005.
Between 2000 and 2050 - - the city populations exposed to tropical cyclones or earthquakes will more than double, rising from 11% to 16% of the world's population.
Roughly 20% of the humanitarian aid is now spent responding to disasters, whereas only 0.7% is spent on preventative measures taken to mitigate their possible consequences, according to the World Bank.

This is a great observation the article makes - -

"Making cities more resilient involves starker trade-offs in the developing world. On the other hand, urbanization strips cities of their natural defenses against disaster and exposes more people to loss of life and property when an earthquake or cyclone hits. On the other hand, urbanization makes poor people richer. The density and infrastructure of cities makes people more productive and more able to afford the measures needed to keep them safe. So mitigation measures should not discourage people from crowding into vulnerable cities but rather establish incentives for cities and their inhabitants to protect themselves better."

The authors of the two articles offer three points of advice regarding limiting the damage that natural disasters do - -

Get your priorities right. At present, too large a slice of disaster budgets goes to rescue and repair after a tragedy, and not enough on beefing up defences beforehand. Any shelter is useless if it has fallen into disrepair.
Government should be fiercer when private individuals and firms, left to pursue their own self-interest, put all of society at risk. If you want to destroy coastal marshlands and live by the sea - - the government should not be subsidizing you.
Governments must eliminate the perverse incentives their policies produce. We cannot, for the sake of lower premiums, underprice the risk of living in and around dangerous places.

Several good books on the quantitative side of disasters - -

Failure as a function of geography

2012-01-13T19:32:00.001-06:00

Interesting observations in the Wall Street Journal today by Rich Karlguard - - "Kodak Didn't Kill Rochester. It Was the Other Way Around" - -

"Kodak's other structural problem is geography. When you study the history of great American companies that stumbled and failed, or only partially recovered, you see how difficult it is to overcome the mindset of your immediate surroundings. Business located in places where success is the norm, and innovation is built into the ecology, have a better chance of fixing themselves."

Karlguard concludes with - -

"The world might be flat. But innovation and adaption remain local."

Engineering Behavior Modification

2012-01-13T07:22:00.000-06:00

Interesting story from The Seattle Times - - With Toll, 520 Traffic Light - - and Faster Than Limit.

We compete for memory

2012-01-12T03:33:00.004-06:00

We are living in a time where we compete for memory. From the 15 restaurants offering Mexican food in a mile radius, to 1,500 television channels, to 500 models and colors of laptops, to a bank on every corner - - it's an overcrowded marketplace in almost all industries (except Girl Scouts cookies).

We ultimately are completing for memory - - the customers or clients ability to remember things and events. If you cannot compete for memory, be prepared to go out of business. Business success starts with a journey - - a journey that must be, from the viewpoint of the customer, something that is unforgettable, significant, notable, important, consequential, remarkable, outstanding, striking, and impressive.

Career Advice

2012-01-11T07:50:00.001-06:00

Saturday must have been opening day of Girl Scouts cookie sale season. It typically starts with the soft and polite knock on the front door. You purchase five boxes - - mom is in the SUV fully stocked and highly mobile. This is a true logistical machine that should be the envy of the Department of Defense. The next view of the selling machine is at the grocery story. Set-up inside the store and doing a brisk business (in competition with the grocery store). You purchase three more boxes and forget the New Years resolution - - a covey of moms thanks you. Two miles into your five mile run later that afternoon - - the little red wagon boxed three feet high and two little girls pulls up beside you (the run is more quantitative than qualitative). You carry cash with you on runs during cookie season - - one more box for the road.

If you are thinking about a career and industry, one interesting question for a future employer might just be - - "What is your connection to the production, distribution, and sale of Girl Scouts cookies?" Chemical engineers involved in food production, industrial engineers interested in distribution, packaging engineers, even graphic artists - - the closer you can get to the center of the Girl Scouts cookie empire as a career, the better off you might be. We all envy stable employment opportunities that have two characteristics - - a closed and monopolistic market structure combined with an energetic, polite, aggressive, and low-cost (free) sales force.

PS - - My favorite this year is the "Crunchy Fudge-Coated Treats" with the "same cookies, same size, less packaging."

Building resilience against the megadrought

2012-01-10T07:29:00.000-06:00

A good eye-opening book by William deBuys - - A Great Aridness: Climate Change and the Future of the American Southwest (2011). The book paints a picture that is not pretty - - ". . . what the Southwest might look like when the heat turns up and the water runs out." The U.S. Southwest is an important economic, cultural, and technological center. It will be under an intense microscope as climate change takes hold. The Southwest, vulnerable to water shortages, rising temperatures, wildfires, a host of other environmental change in the United States, will draw an international audience.

Consider the following point the book makes and the role engineers will play:

Unfortunately, there's a possibility that the next megadrought has already begun - - we just don't know it yet. The character of a drought becomes clear only retrospectively, and every long drought includes wet years that break the pattern of sustained dryness. A megadrought, by definition manifests only over a span of decades. In a way, our decisions for the future should be the same, no matter whether we are a few years inside a megadrought or lucky enough to have decades of relative abundance ahead of us. Deep, crushing cycles of drought are part of the natural history of the Southwest and, for all practical purposes, they always have been. Building resilience against drought into the region's water systems and cultural practices would be a wise course, irrespective of the cause or timing of the next emergency. Perhaps the dangers now arising from anthropogenic climate change will goad us into doing the things we should have been doing all along. This is especially urgent because the next megadrought will pose unique challenges. "You can probably bet your house," says Overpeck {Jonathan Overpeck, professor of geosciences at the University of Arizona, where he also codirects the Institute of the Environment}, "that unless we do something substantial about these greenhouse gas emissions, the megadroughts of the future are going to be a lot hotter than the ones of the past. So their impacts are going to be a lot more dramatic."

The Eye Ball

2012-01-09T03:50:00.002-06:00

Interesting camera - - a globe studded ball with cameras captures a panorama view when you throw it into the air.

The Best Management Book of 2011

2012-01-08T09:03:00.000-06:00

The best management book I read in 2011 was Masters of Management: How the Business Gurus and Their Ideas Have Changed The World - For Better and For Worse (2011). The author is Adrian Wooldridge, who writes the Schumpeter column for the Economist.

Interesting points and ideas in the book included the following:

Management still boils down to two conflicting ideas. Scientific management - - is based on the idea that the average worker is a lazy slob who is redeemed only by greed. Humanistic management - - is based on the idea that the average worker is a Promethean figure - intelligent, creative, and self-motivating. The debate has and is between the ideas of "hard" management and "soft" management.
An organization is a human, social, and a moral phenomenon.
Respect needs to be instilled in everybody who claims to be a professional.
Collaborative production and collaborative consumption are terms we need to keep an eye on.
The modern boss is seriously overextended.
As companies grow more complex, the job of manager becomes more ill defined.
Frugal innovation - - reengineered medical devices could slash health care costs without reducing the quality of care while compact and fuel-efficient cars will allow people to keep driving but cause less damage to the environment.
Brainworkers, such as engineers, are far more difficult to manage than manual workers. They are all ego and self-righteousness. Apply the bridle too harshly and they are likely to head off in the wrong direction. Apply the whip too vigorously and they will sit down and refuse to move.
Brainworkers, aka clevers - - point them in the right direction and allow them to decide on the route; or, better still, give them the illusion that they are choosing both the direction and the route themselves. Second - - massage their egos at every possible opportunity. Always hold out the opportunity for another gold star.
Perhaps the key to managing brainworkers and clevers is that, in many ways they are still stuck in kindergarten. They crave adulation. They are quick to take a slight and slow to learn how to play with others. They spend meetings giggling like naughty schoolchildren or ostentatiously reading newspapers. The secret may just be to treat them like precocious children.
The hardest thing for companies to do is also the most important: they need to be able to tolerate failure.
The problem of relying on your customers for ideas is that customers are usually conservatives: they want more of the same for less money.
The more you listen to your best customers, the more you are deaf to your non-customers.
Innovation is coming from ever more places - - the foxes beat the hedgehogs.
Corporate planning - - a great deal of corporate planning is the "ritual rain dance."
Most successful strategies are usually based on "platforms" rather than products - - Google is about platforms. Platform leaders are more difficult to dislodge than product leaders. Managers need to think more about ecosystems than about products.
Long-term results cannot be gained by piling short-term results on short-term results.

Lord Root of the Matter

2012-01-07T00:05:00.001-06:00

The Engineer as "Trusted Adviser" and pragmatic breaker of logjams is something we should be thinking about more. Organizations and individuals, given the technical complexity of modern society, need an engineering consigliere. The engineer that can manage to shed light on a technical or engineering issue or problem with a well-timed insight, or steer a debate toward a practical solution.

History has provided us with rich examples of individuals that mastered the role of Trusted Adviser. For example, Harry Hopkins, who came to be known as President Franklin D. Roosevelt's "Deputy President", is probably the best recent example (Churchill coined the title "Lord Root of the Matter" when referring to Hopkins). Hopkins had the unique ability to quickly see to the heart of most problems during the Roosevelt years - - especially during World War II. Close friend and adviser to the President - - he was the ". . . lighthouse the beams that led great fleets to harbour."

Sixteen Points of Success

2012-01-06T03:55:00.002-06:00

Kansas State plays in the Cotton Bowl tonight and I thought it would a good time to list K-State Coach Bill Synder's 16-points of success - -

Commitment
Unselfishness
Unity
Improve
Be Tough
Self-Discipline
Great Effort
Enthusiasm
Eliminate Mistakes
Never Give Up
Expect to Win
No Self-Limitations
Don't Accept Losing
Consistency
Leadership
Responsibility

The Unsinkable Molly Brown

2012-01-05T04:36:00.002-06:00

Imagine watching the movie Titanic (the 3D version comes out this summer, so you can) with one big change - - everyone weighs on average an extra 30 pounds. Poor Rose on the small wooden raft - - but 35 pounds heavier. Or the survivors in the crowded life boats - - but with hundreds of extra pounds. Picture crew and passengers totaling 2,200 times 30-pounds per person - - when life boats supported only 700 survivors.

The Coast Guard must be thinking about this. In December the Coast Guard formally put into effect rules requiring certain passenger vessels to comply with its new Assumed Average Weight per Person. That new weight, 185 pounds, is a full 25 pounds more than the previous average, 160, a figure put in place about half a century ago (the 185 comes by averaging the average male (194.7) with the average female (164.7) per the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention - - clothing and personal items are also embedded in the averages).

It all boils down to a simple calculation - - Greater Average Weight Per Person divided by the Same Vessel Capacity = Fewer Passengers per Ship (and lower revenue per ship and the need for more ships if the traffic and schedule allows).

The World According To Tyson

2012-01-04T04:22:00.004-06:00

Mike Tyson on the art of planning - - "Everybody has a plan till they get punched in the mouth." Engineering had better get use to the notion that the time between punches has been getting progressively shorter since the 1960s, and the strength of the punches progressively greater. The world is getting much more complex and turbulent - - the philosopher Tyson might just be correct.

The Four Questions of I.B.M.

2012-01-03T04:13:00.014-06:00

The former chief of I.B.M., Samuel J. Palmisano, boiled down his guiding framework into four questions - -

Why would someone spend their money with you - - so what is unique about you?
Why would somebody work for you?
Why would society allow you to operate in their defined geography - - their country?
And why would somebody invest their money with you?

The point of the questions - - focus thinking and prod the company beyond its comfort zone and to make I.B.M. pre-eminent again. The pursuit of excellence in those four dimensions shaped the strategy. To focus on doing unique work, with higher profits, meant getting out of low-margin businesses that were fading. I.B.M.'s Smart Planet effort is an example of shifting the hub of innovative thinking to services and software - - with the goal of solving huge and global societal challenges.

For a 100-year old plus company, I.B.M. has never lost its appetite for innovation. Established businesses are built for efficiency rather than innovation. Efficiency depends on predictability and repeatability - - on breaking tasks down into their component parts and holding employees accountable for hitting their targets. Companies that venture down the innovation path are crossing the markers of unpredictable and uncertain.

I.B.M. also demonstrates that "big is beautiful." Big companies, like an I.B.M. have huge advantages over small ones. They can invest more money in research and bring a wider range of skills together. This may be essential to solving huge problems - - such as our overdependence on fossil fuels or shortages of clean drinking water. They can also bring new ideas to market much more quickly than small companies.

The War Horse and Innovation

2012-01-02T03:00:00.003-06:00

I had the opportunity to see the movie War Horse over the weekend. Great movie and story. An interesting sub-chapter to the War Horse story shows up in Wade Davis's Into the Silence: The Great War, Mallory, and the Conquest of Everest (2011). Davis writes the following about World War I, horses, and innovation - -

Britain had not fought a major continental war in a century, and the high command exhibited a stubborn disconnection from reality so complete as to merge at times with the criminal. A survey conducted in the three years before the war found that 95 percent of officers had never read a military book of any kind. This cult of the amateur, militantly anti-intellectual, resulted in a leadership that, with noted exceptions, was obtuse, willfully intolerant of change, and incapable for the most part of innovative thought or action. Thus men who had fought in 1898 at Omdurman - a colonial battle in which the British, at a cost of just 48 dead, had mowed down with Maxim guns 11,000 Sudanese, wounding another 15,000 - nevertheless in 1914 rejected the machine gun as a useful weapon of war. As late as March 1916, after twenty months of fighting, Douglas Haig, the British commander in chief, who had been at Omdurman as a staff officer to Kitchener, sought to limit the number of machine guns per battalion, concerned that their presence might dampen the men's offensive spirit. For a similar reason, he resisted the introduction of the steel helmet, which had been shown to reduce head injuries by 75 percent. In the summer of 1914 he dismissed the airplane as an overrated contraption, and he had little use for light mortars, which in time would become the most effective of all trench weapons. Even the rifle was suspect. What counted was the horse and saber.

"It must be accepted as a principle," read the Cavalry Training manual in 1907, "that the rifle, effective as it is, cannot replace the effect produced by the speed of the horse, the imagination of the charge and the terror of cold steel."

Throughout the war, Haig would insist on holding in reserve three full divisions of mounted troops, 50,000 men, ready at all hours to exploit the breakthrough at the front that would never come. As late as 1926, as the nation mourned the death of nearly 1 million men, Haig would write on the future of war, "I believe that the value of the horse and the opportunity of the horse in the future are likely to be great as ever. Aeroplanes and tanks are only accessories to the men and the horse, and I feel sure that as time goes on you will find just as much use for the horse - and well bred horse - as you have ever done in the past." The frontline soldiers knew better. Of the cavalry reserve one remarked, "They might as well be mounted on bloody rocking-horses for all the good they are going to do."

A 2012 To Do List For Engineers

2012-01-01T02:09:00.006-06:00

Consider the following list of skills, ideas, and issues that all engineers might want to consider for 2012:

Get Macroeconomics - - Basic macroeconomics will dominate a large portion of this century. From income inequality, to job creation, to public austerity, to sovereign debt concerns - - the livelihood of engineering interfaces directly with issues relating to economics. In addition, we face a future in which 1/3 of the globe will be receiving some form of public or private pension. Don't dust off the old college economics book. Find a good economics blog. My favorite read is the Marginal Revolution by Tyler Cowen.
Improve Your Listening Skills - - Communication involves receiving as well as sending signals. It has been asserted that we spend 70% of our time awake in some mode of communication, which is comprised of the following - - 10% writing, 15% reading, 30% talking, and 45% listening. Listening is crucial in the workplace and engineering. It entails the reception and correct understanding of verbal communication and without effective listening skills, the verbal message can be distorted or ignored, thereby causing the communication process to fail. Listening - - the other part of communication - - get better at it.
Master Visual Literacy - - Improve the quality of your visual communication skills. It is clear that every engineering profession relies heavily on the use of visual forms as a means of non-verbal communication. The Internet and new software tools have changed the world of graphic and image-based information. Master the new world of enhanced and cool graphics and photographs.
Reach Across the Aisle - - Communication between disciplines (engineering and other professions) is an important aspect that needs to be considered. Our problems and projects are interdisciplinary. Identify opportunities between engineering and other disciplines. Expand your network - - civil engineers meeting with mechanical engineers. All engineers networking with investment bankers and lawyers.
Study a Sustainability Issue in Detail - - Phoenix is an interesting laboratory for studying sustainability issues and concerns. Two new books address this issue in the context of Phoenix and the Southwest - - Bird on Fire: Lesson's From the World's Least Sustainable City by Andrew Ross and Disappearing Desert: The Growth of Phoenix and the Culture of Sprawl by Janine Schipper.
Think About Levines' Comments - - Mark Levine of the New York Times had the following observation - - "Owning is dull, selfish, timid, and backward, while sharing is clean, crisp, urbane, and post-modern." How does engineering interface with a potential new world of collaborative consumption (e.g., Zipcar).
Think Like the Colonel - - Rethink your notion of career and retirement. Harlan Sanders founded Kentucky Fried Chicken when he was sixty-five. The key issue - - the more Colonel's, the less potential Social Security and Medicare "underfundment" problems.
Reflect on Thomas Jefferson - - "Every generation needs a new revolution," Thomas Jefferson wrote toward the end of his life. If you are graduating in 2012, what will be your generation's revolution?
Engineering Empathy - - Managers and engineers who display empathy skills are able to communicate honestly and proactively. They also have great listening skills. Listening to another person's point of view helps the listener become more aware of the person's needs and wants. The lesson for engineers - - empathy skills are required in managing interpersonal relationships in the workplace with colleagues, clients, customers, and other stakeholders.
Manage Change Better - - Everyone wants progress, but no one wants change. Out-of-the-box thinking is seen as too expensive, too disruptive, too weird or too risky. If you hear such a response, it's probably masking the real settlement: fear of failure. Firms that succumb to fear don't have the mind-set needed to innovate. Engineers have a unique task - - come up with ideas customers and clients would never be able to think of through their own efforts. Fear of failure should not be part of this process.
Embrace a Culture and Attitude of Resilience - - Read about Earnest Shackleton and his expedition to Antarctica. Nothing speaks to the ideas of reinvention and survival than this story. Resilience is vital in our own time, when leaders and engineers must often change course midstream - - jettisoning earlier standards of success and refining their purposes and plans. Read the Shackleton case study by Harvard Business School professor Nancy Koehn.

The UN Global Pulse Project

2011-12-31T09:07:00.000-06:00

Global Pulse is a new initiative by the United Nations to leverage data from the consumer Internet for global development. So-called sentiment analysis of messages in social networks and phone text messages - - using natural language deciphering software - - can help predict job losses or lower spending in a region, or disease outbreaks.

For example, in parts of Africa, cellphones serve as the ATM, with text messages initiating money transfers. These messages can also serve as an early warning system. When savings transfers drop to 50 cents or zero from $10 a month - - the digital world can provide evidence that something is happening in the physical world.

Global Pulse, began in late 2009, is conducting research and trying to forge partnerships with private companies. To really succeed, the program needs the cooperation of Internet companies and cellphone carries to give it access to social network and text-message communications, which would be stripped of any personally identifying information.

Chance favors the prepared mind

2011-12-30T20:23:00.000-06:00

Interesting paragraph in the December 26, 2011 Luke Johnson column of the Financial Times (Big drawbacks can be made into even bigger assets) - -

"Marc Anderson, the co-founder of Netscape, noted in a blog that chance favours those who have a bias for action and a strong sense of curiosity. You need to be in motion to come across your share of breaks. And to exploit those openings, you must be ready to pounce. As Louis Pasteur said: Chance favours the prepared mind."

Poor Americans

2011-12-29T18:09:00.000-06:00

Poor Americans are richer than rich Indians.

The Management Secrets of Sir Alex Ferguson

2011-12-28T17:49:00.001-06:00

A great article in today's Financial Times by Simon Kuper on Manchester United's legendary manager Sir Alex Ferguson (Why Ferguson remains at the top of his game). Kuper writes that Ferguson doesn't have a brilliant understanding nor is he a genius. What Ferguson excels at is management - - the handling of people.

Kuper identifies some of Sir Alex's management secrets:

Identify yourself with your company's brand. Ferguson is the embodiment of the club's values - - the "keeper of the temple" - - the cause has become almost unthinkable without him.
Hone your strongest character trait into a weapon. Known for his temper and famed "hairdryer" treatment - - he has learned to switch it on and off for maximum effect.
Cultivate every interest group inside the company. Per Ferguson - - "Even if you hate your chairman, you have to find a way of getting on with it" - - board's, players, fans, and sponsors all have to be onside.
Gather information everywhere. Ferguson knows everyone in the context of soccer - - he "hoovers" up information all the time. Cultivate contacts unto death (a performance metric is the number of funerals you attend!).
Seek total control (but recognize when you cannot have it). Ferguson views leadership as requiring three main qualities - - control, managing change, and observation. Ferguson has a simple equation for control - - control = fear + information.
Do not let other people cause you stress. Feel pressure? Ferguson had the following advice - - "You know what I do in those circumstances? You've got to literally imagine you are putting blinkers on. People want to get into your space. Only you decide who gets into your space."
Remember that crises blow over. Tomorrow will be better than today - - Ferguson never adjusts his strategy because he knows crises pass.
Always be unsatisfied. Satisfaction is fatal - - every trophy he wins is just a notch towards a target he never wants to meet.

The Internet of Things

2011-12-27T12:23:00.000-06:00

Great article in the December 18, 2011 Sunday Review of the New York Times by Steve Lohr - - The Internet Gets Physical. Highlights the movement and opportunities associated with the Internet of games and social networking - - to a future of the Industrial Internet. A future of "digital smarts" in everything. Highlights of the article included:

Across many industries, products and practices are being transformed by communicating sensors and computing intelligence - - jet engines, bridges, oil rigs, etc.
The future Industrial Internet is real-time and non-virtual.
Smart hospital rooms with tiny cameras - - combined with software, they can alert medial staff to wash their hands before touching a patient.
Digital water meters that inform and alert - - consume less and alert to possible leaks. Bits and bytes that inform to allow for behavioral modification.
Disaster response has huge potential - - advanced alerts and airborne sensors.
Software techniques like pattern recognition and machine learning used in Internet searches, online advertising and smartphone apps are also ingredients in making smart devices to manage energy consumption, health care and traffic.

Everything Is Making Data

2011-12-26T19:54:00.001-06:00

Engineering faces a future of ever-increasing digital connectivity - - data from cellphones, computers, sensors, digital cameras, RFID readers, smart meters, and GPS devices. Not just ant hills of data - - but mountains of data from all over the planet. You, your car, your house - - we live in a world of data generation. We make data and it gets connected to someone or something in real time. Engineering needs to thing of individuals as personal data factories - - factories rich in economic outputs.

Our era of "Everything Is Making Data" fits nicely into the evolution of data. The evolution of data consists of three stages - -

Descriptive - - What just happened?
Predictive - - What might happen?
Prescriptive - - What should happen?

Engineering ought to be going nuts over the opportunities embedded in exponential data generation growth combined with new tools for sorting - - new ways to analyze data in real time. Look for companies like Splunk to make the tools that address the needs of the big data movement (this marketing slogan - - "Listen to your data" gets at the heart of the issue.

The McKinsey Global Institute has estimated global data generation to increase by 40% per year - - data generation as a grow industry.

Sanergy

2011-12-23T19:52:00.001-06:00

The World Health Organization estimates that 2.6 billion people worldwide lack access to hygienic toilets, causing the spread of disease. Enter M.I.T. grad David Auerbach and his organization Sanergy and the unique business model of the franchise public toilet.

He sells prefabricated concrete toilets to local entrepreneurs for about $500 - - either cash or from a microlender. The owner is responsible for supplies and maintenance - - each is stocked with toilet paper, soap, and water. Operators profit by charging about $0.05 per visit.

How did they come up with the name BlackBerry?

2011-12-22T19:39:00.001-06:00

Good question. What about Intel's Pentium? Apple's PowerBook is another good one. They came from a strategic branding company - - Lexicon based in California.

John Colapinto has a fascinating article on Lexicon, their history, and the very creative branding and naming process in Famous Names: Does it matter what a product is called (the October 3, 2011 issue of The New Yorker).

WindGen Power Products

2011-12-21T19:32:00.000-06:00

WindGen Power Products serves the East Africa off-grid energy market by manufacturing, installing, and maintaining small wind turbines.

The Most Influential Cities

2011-12-20T13:59:00.003-06:00

Check out the global elite - - from management consulting firm A.T. Kearney in their Global Cities Index.

State Champs!!

2011-12-19T20:07:00.000-06:00

Southlake Carroll Dragons - - Texas 5A Division 1.

IIED

2011-12-19T13:50:00.003-06:00

Good link for information - - London's International Institute for Environment and Development.

The Question for 2012

2011-12-18T13:02:00.002-06:00

The question for 2012 (and the rest of the decade) for the developed world is - - "Where will work come from?" The answer is we don't know and, which is even more troubling, we don't understand enough about the actual process of why jobs are created.

Not an easy question, especially viewed through the lens of a structure shift in power from developed to developing, a shift from the industrialized to the industrializing, an information revolution changing almost every industry, too much debt, too much consumption, too much entitlement, and too little innovation.

The answer to the question fundamentally sets the stage and outlook for the rest of the century.

Knowledge Over Space

2011-12-17T12:28:00.001-06:00

The Seven Billion special series has been published throughout the year in National Geographic. The December 2011 issue has a great observation from Harvard economist Edward Glaeser - -

"The quintessence of the vibrant city for Glaeser is Wall Street, especially the trading floor, where millionaires forsake large offices to work in an open-plan bath of information. "They value knowledge over space - - that's what the modern city is all about," he said. Successful cities "increase the returns to being smart" by enabling people to learn from on another. In cities with higher average education, even the uneducated earn higher wages; that's evidence of "human capital spillover."

Engineering and Ron Paul

2011-12-16T13:39:00.006-06:00

Engineering might just play the key role of developing libertarian utopias - - home to maybe Peter Thiel and Ron Paul. Engineers designing and constructing self-ruling floating cities - - city/states on the ocean. The term is referred to as "Seasteading" - - think pontoon-type structures or giant barges (or think Waterworld without the gills). The technical challenges are daunting enough. Imagine the legal and accounting efforts to create independent, self-ruling tax havens in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

Check out the engineering page for ClubStead of The Seasteading Institute.

The Cook Doctrine

2011-12-15T19:16:00.001-06:00

Tim Cook has the difficult role of replacing Steve Jobs at Apple. In Steve Jobs, author Walter Isaacson lays out "The Cook Doctrine" - -

"We believe that we are on the face of the earth to make great products, and that's not changing. We are constantly focusing on innovating. We believe in the simple not the complex. We believe that we need to own and control the primary technologies behind the products that we make, and participate only in markets where we can make a significant contribution. We believe in saying no to thousands of projects, so that we can really focus on the few that are truly important and meaningful to us. We believe in deep collaboration and cross-pollination of our groups, which allow us to innovate in a way that others cannot. And frankly, we don't settle for anything less than excellence in every group in the company, and we have the self-honesty to admit where we're wrong and the courage to change. And I think, regardless of who is in what job, those values are so embedded in this company that Apple will do extremely well."

Communicate the future to drive the present

2011-12-14T23:34:00.002-06:00

Great book by Kevin Murray - - The Language of Leaders: How top CEOs communicate to inspire, influence, and achieve results (2012). Murray interviews 60 UK business and government leaders regarding the intersection of communications and leadership. Murray writes the following:

"Inspiring leaders make us want to achieve more. They persuade us to their cause, win our active support, help us to work better together and make us to work better together and make us feel proud to be part of the communities they create. They communicate tirelessly, and it is their skill at listening and talking that keeps ups passionately connected to their vision."

Each chapter has a list of key points. These are the points from the chapter on the need for communicating about the future - -

Paint a vivid picture of success.
Describe the future both in rational terms (the numbers) and emotional terms (how it will feel for all concerned).
This bringing together of the rational and the emotional is key to inspiring people.
This future, though, has to be expressed in benefit terms for all the people with a vested interest in the performance of the organization - - customers, shareholders, local communities, suppliers and partners and, most importantly, employees.
Leaders make sure their vision presents sustainable success for all.
Leaders must not only explain the future, they must also explain why it is necessary to change, and give a sense of hope and optimism to the businesses they lead, through what they say.
Leaders ensure their people understand what quality of relationship will be needed with their key stakeholders.
Fusing the future vision (what success will look and feel like) to the mission (what important thing we are here to do) and to the values (how we do it) completes the pictures.

Beat the World in Manufacturing

2011-12-13T17:53:00.000-06:00

Interesting report from the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation - - Explaining Anemic U.S. Job Growth: The Role of Faltering Competitiveness.

TerraChoice and the Seven Sins of Greenwashing

2011-12-12T19:40:00.001-06:00

From TerraChoice and their Seven Sins of Greenwashing - -

Sin of the Hidden Trade-off - - A claim suggesting that a product is "green" based on a narrow set of attributes without attention to other important environmental issues. Paper, for example, is not necessarily environmentally-preferable just because it comes from a sustainability-harvested forest. Other important environmental issues in the paper-making process, such as greenhouse gas emissions, or chlorine use in bleaching may be equally important.
Sin of No Proof - - An environmental claim that cannot be substantiated by easily accessible supporting information or by a reliable third-party certification. Common examples are facial tissues or toilet tissue products that claim various percentages of post-consumer recycled content without providing evidence.
Sin of Vagueness - - A claim that is so poorly defined or broad that its real meaning is likely to be misunderstood by the consumer. "All-natural" is an example. Arsenic, uranium, mercury, and formaldehyde are all naturally occurring, and poisonous. "All natural" isn't necessarily green.
Sin of Worshiping False Labels - - A product that, through either words or images, gives the impression of third-party endorsement where no such endorsement exists; fake labels, in other words.
Sin of Irrelevance - - An environmental claim that may be truthful but is unimportant or unhelpful for consumers seeking environmentally preferable products. "CFC-free" is a common example, since it is a frequent claim despite the fact that CFCs are banned by law.
Sin of Lesser of Two Evils - - A claim that may be true within the product category, but that risks distracting the consumer from the greater environmental impacts of the category as a whole. Organic cigarettes could be an example of this Sin, as might the fuel-efficient sports utility vehicle.
Sin of Fibbing - - Environmental claims that are simply false. The most common examples were products falsely claiming to be Energy Star certified or registered.

Greenwashing

2011-12-11T17:11:00.000-06:00

I ran across the word "Greenwashing" in an article a couple of weeks ago - - The Drivers of Greenwashing by Magali Delmas and Vanessa Cuerel Burbano in the Fall 2011 issue of California Management Review. The authors define "Greenwashing" as - -

" . . . the act of misleading consumers regarding the environmental practices of a company (firm-level greenwashing) or the environmental benefits of a product or service (product-level greenwashing)."

The authors note - -

"The consumer and capital markets for green products, services, and firms have been expanding rapidly in the last decade. The consumer market for green products and services was estimated at $230 billion in 2009 and predicted to grow to $845 billion by 2015. At the start of 2010, professionally managed assets utilizing socially responsible investing strategies, of which environmental performance is a major component, were valued at $3.07 trillion in the U.S., an increase of more than 380 percent form $639 billion in 1995. More companies are now communicating about the greenness of their products and practices in order to reap the benefits of these expanding green markets. Green advertising has increased almost tenfold in the last 20 years and nearly tripled since 2006. As of 2009, more than 75 percent of S&P 500 companies had website sections dedicated to disclosing their environmental and social policies and performance. At the same time, more and more firms are engaging in greenwashing, misleading consumers about firm environmental performance or the environmental benefits of a product of service. Over 95 percent of products surveyed by TerraChoice in 2008/2009 committed at least one of the TerraChoice Seven Sins of Greenwashing."

Miracle on Mockingbird

2011-12-10T22:15:00.001-06:00

This is an actual fox that ran across the field at SMU's Ford Stadium during our winning touchdown - - Southlake Carroll Dragons 28 - Dallas Skyline Raiders 24.

iTwin

2011-12-09T21:41:00.002-06:00

This is interesting - - iTwin. The iTwin is a tiny device like a USB stick with two ends. It splits in the middle, whereupon you plug one end into your desktop (PC or Mac) and carry the other end around with you. Wherever you then find yourself in the world, you can plug the portable end of your iTwin into any Internet-connected computer of either type and gain full, secure access to your office machine.

The Honest Truth

2011-12-08T07:25:00.001-06:00

Interesting observations from Andrew Hill (On Management column for the Financial Times) today - - Honesty in times of crisis is overrated:

"Honesty, trust, communications and shared sacrifice count for little if managers can't then frame a successful strategy."

"Here's the honest truth: when fierce macroeconomic crosswinds are blowing, even good communication, employer-employee trust, shared sacrifice and smart management cannot guarantee a soft landing."

Universities are educating 6,000 fewer British engineers a year than 10 years ago

2011-12-07T19:04:00.000-06:00

You can read the results in The Stem Subject Push.

Holiday Reading List

2011-12-06T18:51:00.000-06:00

My recommendations to read over the holiday season - -

Endgame: Bobby Fischer's Remarkable Rise and Fall by Frank Brady
Everything is Obvious: Once You Know the Answer by Duncan Watts
Thinking about Leadership by Nannerl Keohane
One Click: Jeff Bezos and the Rise of Amazon.com by Richard Brandt
The Art of Invention: The Creative Process of Discovery and Design by Steven Paley
War Room: The Legacy of Bill Belichick and the Art of Building the Perfect Team by Michael Holley
Ghosts of Daylight: Love, War, and Redemption by Janine Di Glovanni
Catherine the Great: Portrait of a Woman by Robert Massie
Bazaar Politics: Power and Pottery in an Afgan Market Town by Noah Coburn
Can Intervention Work? by Rory Stewart and Gerald Knaus

Motivation versus Inspiration

2011-12-05T19:33:00.002-06:00

Management tends to confuse these two words (the reality is that we all tend to confuse the two). Motivation comes from outside, such as the need to earn money. The management approach to motivation is typically the "carrot or the stick" - - viewing your life and career as a production line. Inspiration is about finding meaning in your work - - what is your purpose and what really inspires you. What drives your enthusiasm? Inspiration involves playing to your strengths and passions. Motivation is more sprint than marathon - - it may or may not have the earnestness of inspiration.

I would recommend thinking about inspiration in the context of the linkage between what you do and the impact you have.

How Doctors Die?

2011-12-05T17:32:00.000-06:00

It might be useful to design our health care system around the following article - - How Doctors Die?

Permasense

2011-12-04T09:06:00.000-06:00

We are a nation of pipelines. Many of these support our hydrocarbon infrastructure. Many of these miles of pipelines are also very old - - because of the corrosive natural of most hydrocarbons, damage to the pipework is a constant risk. Holes in oil pipelines (any pipeline for that matter) can cause not only a shutdown, but also a risk to life and the environment.

Enter Peter Cawley, Imperial College, London and a company called Permasense that has been set up to commercialize a new way to think about corrosion monitoring in the context of many chemical plants and refineries. Currently, tracking corrosion means inspecting miles pipes using ultrasonic scanners that measure thickness of a pipe wall by timing the reflections of pulses of sound from its internal and external surfaces. In the case of a refinery, this requires a plant shut down dealing with extremely hot pipe sections. Typically this type of monitoring is completed every four years - - wide safety margins then have to be imposed to ensure there is no rapid deterioration.

Permasense's secret is the methodology they utilize to attach scanners to pipes - - speciality shaped stainless steel that acts as both a poor conductor of heat and shaped to act as waveguides. You end up with better signal quality and a platform for continuous monitoring - - this doesn't prevent corrosion, it does let operators and engineers sleep better at night.

Three Degrees of Separation

2011-12-03T07:58:00.001-06:00

Marketing attention is switching towards the digital universe. Some of this is hype surrounding the new genre - - although, the word "hype" needs to be viewed in the context that surveys suggest many consumers now spend more time online than watching broadcast television.

At the same time we are witnessing a technology driven blending of private and professional networking. The individual brand of "Me" has expanded to three spheres of influence - - (1.) Strategic Networks - - people outside your control who will enable you to reach key organizational objectives, (2.) Operational Networks - - people you need to accomplish your routine tasks, and (3.) Personal Networks - - kindred spirits outside you organization who can help you with personal advancement.

All of this has produced an environment in which the six degrees of separation of 20-years ago is down to three - - the brand of "Me" has a much easier time actually seeing a network and figuring out where the brand of "Me" wants to go with the contacts that you have.

The Financial Times covered this changed in an article on November 29, 2011 - - Expanded Spheres of Influence. Companies and recruiters see this ability to connect personal and professional networks as a key skill set. The Times writes the following:

"Big recruiters increasingly see the ability to leverage much networks as an essential skill. Gemma Lines, head of graduate marketing, recruitment and development for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Citigroup, says networking is a competency it expects of its new graduate recruits. "We receive 50,000 applications each year and those with the ability to establish links have a huge advantage," she says.

Such individuals are seen as being better equipped for dealing with clients, better able to get to grips with an organizational culture, and more likely to thrive in a globally minded organization.

To appraise their networking qualities, candidates who make it to the final rounds of recruitment are tested on their ability to build relationships. They are put into working groups and observed to see how quickly they can establish a rapport with colleagues. The groups are then mixed up and the candidates ability to forge links with their new team is assessed.

Once hired, graduates join the company a year after selection. To facilitate networking beforehand, new recruits are encouraged to connect with each other on Facebook and to form communities. Once they start at the company, they are not allowed to use sites such as Facebook or LinkedIn on work computers and are instead directed to Citi 2.0, the company's internal networking platform - - although they are allowed to access external networks via smartphones."

Your New Market Segment

2011-12-02T20:25:00.001-06:00

Companies need to understand a market to challenge it. You need to consider three fundamental questions that might lead to an innovative challenge in any established industry:

Who else is a potential customer?
What else can I offer them?
How else might I source, produce, distribute or sell?

SustainAbility

2011-12-01T20:05:00.001-06:00

Interesting consulting firm and think tank that was recently quoted in Bloomberg Businessweek - - SustainAbility.

Asia, Agriculture, and Water

2011-11-30T19:44:00.000-06:00

You might want to dust off the old atlas in terms of better understanding water resources in Asia. It is home to many of the world's great rivers and lakes, but its huge population and exploding economic and agricultural demand for water make it the most water-scarce continent on a per capita basis. The is highlighted and discussed in Water: Asia's New Battleground (2011) by Brahma Chellaney. He puts Asia's water issues in the following context:

"Water is becoming a precious commodity whose control is at the core of several raging conflicts in Asia. Asia's water woes have been exacerbated by rapidly expanding economics, surging populations, rising per capita consumption levels, and continuing rural-to-urban migration. The water crisis now haunting the continent is the bitter fruit of unsustainable practices and a gross mismanagement of basin resources. And it has been accentuated by the rapid spread of irrigated farming and high-water consuming industries and by a growing middle class that not only uses water-guzzling comforts such as washing machines and dishwashers but it also is eating more meat, which is notoriously water-intensive to produce."

Agriculture has a unique place at the intersection of a rapidly rising middle class and food production. Chellaney writes the following:

"Almost 74 percent of the total global freshwater withdrawals for agriculture by volume are made in Asia alone. As a proportion of its own renewable water resources, Asia's yearly agricultural water withdrawals actually aggregate to 81 percent, or at least 10 percentage points higher than the global average. In comparison, water withdrawals in Asia for industrial purposes account for just 11.4 percent; and for household needs, 7.3 percent. South Asia, for its part leads the other Asian subregions in terms of water withdrawals for agriculture. As a general rule, a larger share of water is channeled for agriculture in the developing countries than in the West, while on the whole has temperate climates and longer rainy periods each year. Hotter Africa's water withdrawals for the agricultural sector as a percentage of total renewable water resources even surpass Asia's. Asia, however, has the distinction of being the world's irrigation center. In the developed world, other than Australia and New Zealand, it is industry, not agriculture, that ranks as the leading water consumer. Water withdrawals for industry aggregate to 55 percent and for agriculture 29 percent in Europe, whereas the figure for North America are 48 percent and 38 percent, respectively."

The Megalogue

2011-11-29T20:19:00.005-06:00

The word of the week - - "megalogue." It comes from an interesting book by Steve Stoute - - The Tanning of America: How Hip-Hop Created a Culture that Rewrote the Rules of the New Economy (2011).

"Others have pointed out, and I agree, that marketing must evolve beyond the monologue, to dialogue and to megalogue. No longer can advertising lecture or dictate to customers; interaction and exchange are vital. Add to that the social networking media and technology that the millennial have understood since nursery school, it means that marketing to the group conversation - - the megalogue - - must be seamlessly incorporated."

China Invests (Literally) in Main Street

2011-11-28T20:17:00.000-06:00

This was just a matter of time - - the China Investment Corporation (CIC), the sovereign wealth fund, plans to investment in the dilapidated infrastructure of developed countries. Lou Jiwei, chairman and chief executive officer of the CIC, has an article in today's Financial Times - - China can help the west build economic growth. Jiwei writes the following:

"The narrative of infrastructure development in places such as the US indicates how such investment powers an economy forward. China's growth story in recent years provides further proof. Now, infrastructure in Europe and the US badly needs more investment.

Traditionally, Chinese involvement in overseas infrastructure projects has been as a contractor only. Now, Chinese investors also see a need to invest in, develop and operate projects. In a sign of this determination, the China Investment Corporation, the sovereign wealth fund, is now keen to team up with fund managers or participate in public-private-partnerships (PPP) in the UK infrastructure sector as an equity investor.

Infrastructure spending is an important way to boost consumption and it also acts as a spur to economic growth. One need only look at China to see what can be achieved. Between 1979 and 2007, China committed vast resources to infrastructure development. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the government introduced a Rmb4,400 billion economic stimulus package, with a large part of the money directed into infrastructure. As a result, China's annual economic growth rose from 6.8 percent to more than 10 percent form late 2008 to the end of 2009.

Infrastructure is underinvested in European countries and the US. The British Treasury has estimated that by 2015, Gbp 200 billion will be needed to invest in energy, water transport, digital communications, waste disposal, and other related projects. Meanwhile, the American Society of Civil Engineers estimated that the US needs to spend at least $2,200 billion on infrastructure repairs or rebuilding. Free of inflationary pressure that afflicts many emerging economies, the US and Europe should make substantial investment."

Jiwei sums up our deficit driven future probably the best - - "We cannot count on developed countries to deliver a stable economic recovery on their own."

Science and Project Runway

2011-11-27T15:39:00.002-06:00

This graphic is interesting - - gets at the connection between Albert Einstein and Tim Gunn. The graph is from the current issue of Scientific American (The Links We Love - Science aficionados have odd and surprising interests). At the request of the magazine, the chief scientist at bitly, which shortens URls for Web users, examined 600 science Web page addresses sent to the company's servers on August 23 and 24. Then she tracked 6,000 pages people visited next and mapped the connections.

Physics and computer science should not be a surprise - - but fashion is interesting.

Unemployment by Engineering Major

2011-11-26T13:30:00.003-06:00

Interesting - - unemployment by college major. Which has higher unemployment, biomedical engineering or civil engineering?

Cemex Shift

2011-11-25T08:35:00.003-06:00

I am probably not alone - - corporate online computer aided collaboration is typically dreadful. From Notes to Microsoft's Office Communicator, you enter a a world that has promised much since 1972 (see Corporate networks are starting to bear fruit by Andrew Hill in the November 22, 2011 Financial Times), yet delivered relatively little. Historically the field of computer aided collaboration has been much about the technology that networks an organization and far less on how we understand how organizations actually work (Does anyone actually listen to the staff on what they want to use it for?). Knowledge management - - the stuff in my head, the stuff in my Moleskine, the stuff in my laptop - - has huge upside practicality for any organization. The issue has always been the process of integration and application in the context of knowledge management.

Facebook has been a tremendous roadmap for the corporate world - - it has allowed people to see and utilize in detail the nuts and bolts of social collaboration. Companies like Cemex have seen the future and power of computer aided collaboration with their Cemex Shift. Cross-border and cross-functional collaboration - - anytime you have 900 people talking online about brown clinker (a cement ingredient) you are entering the socially networked world of the nitty-gritty of knowledge transfer and management.

It is a fair point to remind people that freewheeling ideas from online collaboration still need plans and execution - - it is also a fairer point to remember that the science of business plans starts with the art of an idea.

IMD Centre for Corporate Sustainability

2011-11-24T07:55:00.003-06:00

Good website for research and case studies - - IMD's Centre for Corporate Sustainability.

The Process versus the Solution

2011-11-23T19:29:00.002-06:00

Roger Martin is the dean of the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management. His lessons on problem solving and decision making should be read by all engineers. In a world of multidisciplinary problems - - his ideas on "integrative thinking" are the foundation for how we can think about ideas and solutions. Engineers should understand that good decision making is not always about making tough choices, but refusing to choose when no good option presents itself. Sometimes it is about utilizing the tensions of the decision making process created by different ideas to generate even better solutions. The future in the context of how we train and educate engineers might just be less on solution to problems and more on the process of arriving at a solution.

Check out the Rotman Desautels Centre for Integrative Thinking.