Sunday, June 3, 2012

Three laws for the laws of robotics


Ridley Scott's Prometheus opens next week in the United States.  I recently watched the 1979 classic Alien to get into the mood.  The slimy critter bursting from John Hurt's chest is still the unbeatable best in the context of science fiction horror.

An interesting sub-plot in Alien is the man-made entity - - an android played by Ian Holm (as the role of Ash, the science officer).  Ash was designed to do that which his human colleagues lacked the cold-blooded guile to pull off - - poaching the lethal species from space.

I bring this up because the current issue of the Economist has a well-timed cover story - - Morals and the machines.  The article looks at a central theme that engineers need to be aware of.  As robots grow more autonomous, society needs to develop rules to manage them.  As designers, we have yet intersected with the Ashs of the world.  But this point is becoming rapidly closer - - society needs to develop ways of dealing with the ethics of robotics.  This needs to go beyond the guidelines of writer Isaac Asimov written in 1942.  Known as the three laws of robotics - - robots should be required to protect humans, obey orders, and preserve themselves.

The article highlights three 2012 laws for the laws of robotics.  Robot designing engineers may want to consider these three points and watch Alien
  1. Laws are needed to determine where the designer, the programmer, the manufacturer or the operator is at fault if an autonomous drone strike that goes wrong or a driveless car has an accident (or when the "science officer" attempts to choke you to death with a newspaper on a spaceship running from an killing machine).  This has implication for the engineer - - you might want to rule out the use of artificial neural networks, decision-making systems that learn from example rather than obeying predefined rules.
  2. Where ethical systems are embedded into robots, the judgements they make need to be the ones that seem right to most people (and not just the Weyland-Yutani Corp.).  This puts the engineers directly into the interdisciplinary matrix.  The techniques of experimental philosophy, which studies how people respond to ethical dilemmas, should be able to help.
  3. More collaboration is required between engineers, ethicists, lawyers, and policymakers, all of whom would draw up very different types of rules if they were left to their own devices.  Both ethicists and engineers stand to benefit from working together: ethicists may gain a greater understanding of their field by trying to teach ethics to machines, and engineers need to reassure society that they are not taking any ethical short-cuts.
As Ash pointed out 33-years ago, we need to start getting serious about the ethics and responsibilities of new autonomous things like driverless cars.  Prometheus may start us thinking about new themes and responsibilities.

HybridCloud

The Dallas Morning News has an excellent story (Construction goes paperless at airport by Cheryl Hall) on a construction firm as it ditches paper for the Cloud.  The cloud technology in this case is HybridCloud by Egnyte in Mountain View, CA.  The construction company in this case is Balfour Beatty Construction.  The project in question for the application of the cloud technology is the $800 million project to reconstruct Terminals A and C at the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport.

Key points in the article - -
  • The construction industry is quickly adapting cloud technology to store huge drawings and documents on the Internet.
  • Balfour Beatty utilizes iPhones, iPads, and other hand-held devices.
  • Balfour workers can instantly access documents and drawings on their iPads even when there's not an Internet connection.
  • The file on the cloud and the one that's behind the firewall keep in sync with each other - - at night, they pull down current drawings and changes from the cloud onto the iPads as PDFs.  This helps with bandwidth being devoured by dozens of workers trying to simultaneously access multi-megabyte files from the Web.
  • The nature of construction requires cloud technology that can deal with spotty or nonexistent Internet connection.
  • Sample of the Balfour paper load - - five sets of construction drawings requires 10 rolls of paper, weighing 800 pounds and cost $12.000.
  • The Balfour Parkland Hospital project will generate 4,500 sheets of documents.
  • The DFW Airport project would have required 60,000 sheets of 42-by-36-inch paper that weighed 9,000 pounds - - about 112 linear feet of hanging space in the construction trailers.
  • Cost for the new technology - - including the Egnyte's subscription service, 40 iPads, and four 55-inch monitors for group discussions - - about $60,000. 
  • Savings on paper alone - - $1.2 million.

Saturday, June 2, 2012

Slicing up your new Apple


Distribution of value for a 16GB Wi-Fi iPad in 2010.  Total retail price of $499 - -
  • Cost of material and components - - $154
  • Labor (unidentified) - - $25
  • Labor (China) - - $8
  • Cost of distribution and retail - - $75
  • Apple profit - - $150
Source is the Economist (page 8, April 21, 2012) - - total of cost and profit referenced in the article adds to $412.  Kenneth Kraemer at the University of California at Irvine is a better Apple slicer with the following paper:

http://pcic.merage.uci.edu/papers/2011/Value_iPad_iPhone.pdf

Our Manufacturing Revolution

After our gloomy jobs report yesterday, what about some good long-term news.  It regards an unlikely source - - manufacturing.  The Economist had a special report on manufacturing and innovation in the April 21, 2012 issue.  We have entered "the third industrial revolution" according to the report - - the digitization of manufacturing that will transform the way goods are made.  A number of remarkable technologies are converging - - clever software, novel materials, more dexterous robots, new processes (i.e., three-dimensional printing), and a whole range of web-based services.

What is interesting is that the why, how, and what of the digital manufacturing revolution also defines the where.  The report noted the following regarding the where revolution - -

"The revolution will affect not only how things are made, but where.  Factories used to move to low-wage countries, to curb labor costs.  But labor costs are growing less and less important: a $499 first-generation iPad included only about $33 of manufacturing labor, of which the final assembly in China accounted for just $8.  Offshore production is increasingly moving back to rich countries not because Chinese wages are rising, but because companies now want to be be closer to their customers so that they can respond more quickly to changes in demand.  And some products are so sophisticated that it helps to have the people who design them and the people who make them in the same place.  The Boston Consulting Group reckons that in areas such as transport, computers, fabricated metals and machinery, 10-30% of the goods that America now imports from China could be made at home by 2020. boosting American output by $20 billion-$55 billion a year."

Friday, June 1, 2012

Looking good going down the toilet


Economist Tyler Cowen giving a lecture in Italy - -

Better Place LLC


Better Place LLC is an innovative firm looking at the entire electric-car ecosystem.  To finance their infrastructure investments and battery depreciation, they sell multi-year contracts based on miles of driving.  This is similar to the cellphone selling minutes model.



Equations for Life

From Chip Conley and his book Emotional Equations:
  • Despair = Suffering - Meaning
  • Disappointment = Expectations - Reality
  • Workaholism = What are you running from? / What are you living for?
  • Authenticity = Self-Awareness x Courage
  • Joy = Love - Fear
  • Self-Esteem = Success / Pretensions
  • Outcome = Event + Reaction
  • Anticipation = Optimism - Joy
  • Regret = Disappoint + Responsibility
  • Happiness = Wanting what you have / Having what you want
  • Happiness = Practicing gratitude / Pursuing gratification
  • Suffering = Pain x Resistance
  • Remorse = Regret + Guilt
  • Jealousy = Mistrust / Self-Esteem
  • Envy = (Pride + Vanity) / Kindness
  • Anxiety = Uncertainty x Powerlessness
  • Calling = Pleasure / Pain
  • Flow = Skill / Challenge (Goal should be 1.0)
  • Curiosity = Wonder + Awe
  • Narcissism = (Self-Esteem)**2 x Entitlement
  • Integrity = Authenticity x Invisibility x Reliability
  • Innovation = Creativity - Cynicism
  • Thriving = Frequency of positive / Frequency of negative (Goal should be 1.0)
  • Faith = Belief / Intellect
  • Wisdom = Square Root (Experience)
  • Growth = Change - Resistance
  • Humiliation = (Shame x Anger) - Power
  • Empathy = Compassion (for self) + Presence (for others)