The Taliban Don't Surf

The CIA (The CIA Factbook - - don't leave home without it) ranks 227 countries in terms of GDP per capita. The highest ranked country is Liechtenstein (between Switzerland and Austria - - I had to look it up), with a GDP per capita of $122,100. The lowest at #227 is the Democratic Republic of the Congo at $300 per person (really tied with Burundi and once you drop to a certain point in the ratings, you need to consider dropping the "Democratic" part of your name).

Afghanistan makes the bottom 10 at #219 with a GDP per capita of $800. It is the poorest of the Stanlands - - Uzbekistan, for example, shows up in the #168 slot at $2,800 per person.

Our goals in Afghanistan have been rather vague in terms of measurable variables. Let's assume that GDP per capita growth is a reasonable goal and performance metric. We obviously don't want to depart from Afghanistan with it slipping to #227, nor is it reasonable to expect that they can overtake Liechtenstein. A more reasonable goal might be to double their GDP per capita - - we get them up to around $1,600 per person. Chad is #194 at $1,600 - - so a goal after 20 or 30 years might be to turn Afghanistan into Chad. Keep in mind this would still produce on outcome that is lower than North Korea (which I thought was on the verge of collapse) at #188 with a GDP per capita of $1,900. Another methodology could involve looking at similar countries - - for example, other narco-countries like Columbia, comes in at #110 with $9,200 per person. This would be an extreme stretch and the probable upper limit, unless the economics of cocaine versus heroin are vastly different.

Since 2001, most sources estimate our "turning Afghanistan into Chad" bill at roughly $300 billion. Approximately $30 billion per year. Afghanistan has a population of 32 million - - a little less than California at 37 million. Running the arithmetic, we spend roughly $937.50 per person in Afghanistan annually. Adding our donated $937.50 to their existing $800 gets them to almost $1,800 - - #189, which is Tajikistan.

It looks to me #189 needs to be the target. Afghanistan and Tajikistan are neighbors - - similar geography, culture, history, language, and economics - - the model Stanland that best fits with Afghanistan. This seems reasonable - - and it gets them up almost to North Korea. You still won't be able to surf Afghanistan. No ocean, no waves. So we could give the $937.50 per person to the citizens of California, where you can surf.