Extreme Events

From wildfires in Russia caused by record heat and massive flooding in Pakistan - - this may represent the kind of extreme events that engineers will have to deal with in the future. Climate scientist have been warning about these very events - - the engineering communities need to start preparing.

Events in Russia and Pakistan are linked. This year's anticyclones in the Atlantic have produced a gridlock in the world of the Rossby waves, with persistent troughs of low pressure over western and central Europe, while producing a ridge of high pressure over Russia, and lows again farther east. The pressure patterns persist - - producing heat in Russia expected only once in every 400 years or so.

Climate change will shift the patterns of circulation in some ways, but there is no strong reason to believe that it will lead them to seize up more often. Yet the effects of these persistent patterns may get more unpleasant because the world will be warmer and have a more vigorous hydrological cycle.

Engineers will have to think about a world marked by more heat waves and heavier precipitation - - this will have a profound impact on design standards, codes, development, emergency preparedness, emergency response, and recovery actions.