Texas - Uncharted Waters Ahead

The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) is tasked with developing our state water plan.  Provided below is a summary of the TWDB mission:

Development of the state water plan is central to the mission of the TWDB. Based on 16 regional water plans, the plan addresses the needs of all water user groups in the state – municipal, irrigation, manufacturing, livestock, mining, and steam-electric power – during a repeat of the drought of record that the state suffered in the 1950s. At the end of each five-year regional water planning cycle, agency staff compiles information from the approved regional water plans and other sources to develop the state water plan, which is presented to TWDB's governing Board for adoption. The final adopted plan is then submitted to the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and the Texas Legislature.

The 2012 State Water Plan is the ninth state water plan and the third plan based on the regional water planning process. In addition to incorporating the regional water plans, the state water plan serves as a guide to state water policy and includes legislative recommendations that the Board believes are needed and desirable to facilitate voluntary water transfers. The plan also identifies river and stream segments of unique ecological value and sites of unique value for the construction of reservoirs that the Board recommends for protection.

Since I moved to Texas in 1980, this has been what has happened in terms of statewide water planning:

• Starting in the late 1990s, regional groups began identifying strategies that became the core of the overall plan.
• Every five years, the groups revised their ideas.
• Legislators repeatedly failed to identify a funding source.

This cycle might be different this year.  Population growth and the challenges created by recurring droughts have the state looking at funding the water plan with $2 billion from our rainy day fund (although a state limit on spending could stop legislators from using rainy day funds).  Time will tell if we can avoid a water funding meltdown.

Putting funding issues aside, the TWDB might consider adding scenario planning to the tool-box.  The folks in Austin only have to look down the road to Houston and Royal Dutch Shell to understand the value of anticipating future water development issues.  From the unknowns of population growth, to changing demographics, to climate change, to changing energy fortunes, to nudging people to conservation, to advanced technology - - sustained scenario practice can make Texas leaders and citizens comfortable with the ambiguity of an open future.  Scenario planning can expose and counter the hubris and assumptions of our water planning exercises that would otherwise remain implicit.  Taking our "bottom-up" approach to water planning and applying "top-down" scenario planning will foster quicker adaptation and resilience in times of crisis. 

Water in Texas requires the navigation of both complexity and conflict - - managing disagreement, fragmentation, and group think.  Scenario planning in the context of water has the power to engage and open the minds of political leaders and decision makers.  The fundamental goal is to prepare water resource leaders to pay attention to novel, less comfortable, and weaker signals of change and prepare for discontinuity and surprise.  Various scenarios relating to water management provide the right framework to appreciating fundamental long-term choice - - which is not the same as the next five-year plan.  Scenario planning and a strategic vision for water resources in Texas must start to consider three different worlds - - the world of possibility, the world of relativity, and the world of creativity.  Understanding these three worlds will allow Texas leaders to ask the right questions regarding our uncharted waters - - questions that hopefully will allow the state to match capabilities with context.

Nothing speaks to the "Water-Energy Nexus" more than Shell and their long history of effectively utilizing scenario planning.  Check out the link to the latest on what Shell is doing and thinking regarding scenario planning.  Remember that water and oil are marched down the same path - - expect the unexpected.