Arcadis Up 26% in 2012

If you are an investor, start thinking Dutch (see previous blog posting - Invest in Dutch Engineering Firms).   Investor insight in the age of climate change and rising sea levels will be important.  Insight deals with ongoing learning; becoming inquisitive allows you to keep an open mind.   The Arcadis story is not hard to understand.  The Dutch have a long history of keeping back rising tides and are already exporting knowledge through Arcadis - the company now has contracts in New York, New Orleans, and San Francisco.  All of this translated into Arcadis revenue being up 26% in 2012.

Personality affects insight.  Many engineers (and these are mainly civil engineers) are not the insight types.  People who think in black and white won't understand that opportunity often lives in the gray.  Their world is sunlight or darkness, they don't like the shadows.  "What if?" isn't part of their vocabulary. 

The basic corporatist value system can also impact the importance  and application of insight.  The shadows are to be avoided - the view of the changing landscape becomes one of only risk management and cost control.   The value and importance (and economic gain - true wealth exists in the shadows) of ambiguity, uncertainty, exploration, and strategic vision becomes totally lost.

Start to look at several sectors in the context of climate change (Citigroup and Deutsche Bank have published recent reports detailing to their clients how and where they can benefit from climate change).  Engineers should focus on three areas - (1.) the transport of people will be impacted by rising sea levels, (2.) moving water from surplus locations to deficit locations will become the norm, and (3.) coming up with innovative ways to keep back sea levels could get you a Nobel Prize.

The next insightful frontier in coastal communities facing rising sea levels could be poultry.  Our diets may have to change, especially in coastal areas in the developing world.  Ducks float and swim; chickens drown and sink.  China and Vietnam have approximately 138 million people living in areas where the elevation is below five meters.  That could be a lot of duck.  The famous investor from Omaha is probably looking at duck futures as I type this.

Think Dutch and ducks.  Remember that insight deals with seeing and making connections.  Change, coincidences, curiosities and inconsistencies become opportunities to examine what is in a different light.