Texans Could Be Singin In The Rain!!

The chances of El Niño conditions developing by this fall are now 82 percent, up from 78 percent last month -- and 36 percent since November -- the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced.  The current issue is whether the El Nino will be historically strong or only moderate.  The consensus is for a moderate El Nino - an El Nino without the soaking rains much needed in Texas and other parts of the Southwest.

Texas is in need of a strong El Nino to refill lakes and reservoirs at historic lows.  But a strong El Nino has many potential negatives for Texas.  Flood damage and the economic losses associated with above normal rainfall events are always a concern.  This is especially true for a state like Texas that has experienced so much growth since the previous El Nino.  Flood management measures and flood control strategies could get a good test if Texas recieves a strong El Nino. Other areas of concern also include the underground utility environment.  Drought conditions are always visible on the surface for many parts of the infrastructure matrix.  Cracked and damaged highway pavement  are good examples.  But also keep in mind the underground matrix.  A drought damaged collection system is ripe for increased infiltration and inflow due to shifting soil and increased cracking.  Risks include increased overflows and higher treatment costs.

Texans are looking forward to "singin" in the rain - but we also need to be prepared to limit the potential of "cryin" in the rain.