Report from NBER. From the report's abstract:
"In many growth models, economic growth arises from people creating ideas,
and the long-run growth rate is the product of two terms: the effective number of
researchers and the research productivity of these people. We present a wide range
of evidence from various industries, products, and firms showing that research
effort is rising substantially while research productivity is declining sharply. A good
example is Moore’s Law. The number of researchers required today to achieve the
famous doubling every two years of the density of computer chips is more than
75 times larger than the number required in the early 1970s. Across a broad range
of case studies at various levels of (dis)aggregation, we find that ideas — and in
particular the exponential growth they imply — are getting harder and harder to
find. Exponential growth results from the large increases in research effort that
offset its declining productivity."
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