Forecasting and Planning

Last week we saw the destruction and human suffering caused by an earthquake in Haiti. In towns such as Leogane, 80 to 90% of the buildings have been destroyed with no functional local government or infrastructure. Haiti has a population of around nine million people with a median age of 18.4 years. It is the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere with 80% of the population living under the poverty line.

Haiti has two primary natural hazard risks – it lies in the middle of the hurricane belt and is subject to severe storms from June to October. Haiti is also at risk for earthquakes. Based on historical data, scientists have a pretty good idea that the next 35 years will bring roughly 44 earthquakes with an intensity of 7.5 to 7.6 on the Richter scale (the Haiti earthquake was 7.0). But seismologists have no clue as to when and where they’ll occur (apart from places like Haiti). Will these zones be populated or unpopulated? Will they cause large-scale death and destruction? No geologist or seismologist can say.

How, then does the world cope with earthquakes like Haiti? Instead of relying on prediction, the focus is on being prepared. If you’re lucky enough to live in a rich part of the world, engineers can construct buildings capable of withstanding very strong tremors. But if you live in a poor region, you take your chances and suffer the consequences. The main lesson of Haiti is that just because something is too terrible to contemplate doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen. Our interconnections have created a Global Risk Society - - where we all share various risks, where everything is linked to everything else.

We live in a world of statistical models, predictions, and forecasting. Our prediction and forecasting endeavors are supported by a very visible, vocal, and large group of pundits with a willingness to look into their crystal balls on almost any subject. We want predictability based on the past - - yet, history is accelerating to the point where the future becomes more and more unknowable. Engineering is different. We are fundamentally not about strategic forecasting; we are more concerned with strategic planning in a world where uncertainty and indeterminacy are givens.

As we have seen with both Haiti and Katrina, the key is not to develop plans based on predictions and forecasts, but to have emergency plans for a variety of possibilities. Think in terms of The Three A’s (1) Accept that you’re in an uncertain world - - ignoring uncertainty is not an option. (2) Access the level of uncertainty - - once you except uncertainty, look at data and judgments that covers 95% of all the possible outcomes. (3) Augment the range of uncertainty - - understand that most people and organizations consistently underestimate uncertainty.

Engineers work in a globally connected and highly complex world. Acts of terrorism, natural disasters, and credit crunches are all part of the landscape. Engineers should understand what can and cannot be predicted while concentrating on developing the skills and resources necessary for the development of strategic plans that will be sensitive to surprises. Haiti and many other parts of the developing world need an engineering community of resilient pragmatists that understands most disasters are a race between luck and doom - - where luck is the residue of good planning. Ultimately we need engineers that are skilled at improvisation for impossibilities - - who are clear headed, focused, calm, facts-based, and articulate. The rare individual that combines strategic vision with executional ability.