The Risky Business of Texas

From the Risky Business Project:

"The Southeast U.S. and Texas are experiencing an economic boom, mostly due to manufacturing and energy industry growth. But that boom is at risk from unchecked climate change, which could render this region—already one of the hottest and most weather-vulnerable of the country—at significant economic risk. However, if policymakers and business leaders act aggressively to adapt to the changing climate and to mitigate future impacts by reducing their carbon emissions, this region can lead in responding to climate risk. The Southeast can demonstrate to national and global political leaders the kind of strong response necessary to ensure a strong economic future.

This region, comprising the 11 Southeastern states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia as well as Texas to the west, has witnessed a major recent manufacturing boom, and is poised for further economic growth in the coming years. [i] In 2013, manufacturing contributed $2.1 trillion to the U.S. economy—more than 12% of GDP—and accounted for 88% of all U.S. exports, a remarkable 51% increase from declines during the last recession. The region's economic vitality makes it one of the most productive parts of the country.

But climate change is putting that productivity at risk. While the Southeast and Texas are generally accustomed to heat and humidity, the scale of increased heat—along with other impacts such as sea level rise and storm surge—will likely cause significant and widespread economic harm, especially to a region so heavily invested in physical manufacturing, agriculture and energy infrastructure.

If we continue on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway, [ii] the Southeastern U.S. and Texas will likely experience significant drops in agricultural yield and labor productivity, along with increased sea level rise, higher energy demand, and rising mortality rates. In particular, the region's agricultural sector will be negatively influenced by the changing climatic conditions, with several commodity crops likely to face severe yield declines. Meanwhile, residents and businesses will likely be affected by higher heat-related mortality, increased electricity demand and energy costs, and declines in labor productivity, threatening the manufacturing base that is increasingly driving the regional economy. And in some cities, such as Miami and New Orleans, sea level rise will put significant amounts of existing coastal property at risk."