Modeling the Mississippi

After this years spring rains and runoff in the Mississippi River Basin, a key question is - - "Will climate change tip flood flow rates beyond the 20th-century predictions?

Like almost everything associated with climate change, there is no clear or easy answer.  Dr. Eugene Takle of Iowa State University in Ames is studying how climate change will influence the water flowing through the Upper Mississippi River Basin, but making predictions here is difficult: the area is very sensitive to change as it lies a the intersection of the Pacific and Arctic air masses and those from the Gulf of Mexico.

One of Takle's models, built in 2004, suggested flow at the confluence of the Mississippi and Missouri rivers could increase by 50% with climate change, but a follow-up study last year failed to produce such a clear result.  Also, the much larger Ohio River contributes by far more to flooding in the southern United States than the Upper Mississippi River - - look for the Ohio River to gain more attention in the context of flooding and climate change research and modeling.

Check out Climate Change Impacts on Iowa - January 2011 - - Report to the Governor and the Iowa General Assembly.