Wednesday, October 10, 2012

The Engineer as Fox or Hedgehog

From The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fall-but Some Don't by Nate Silver.  What a fox versus hedgehog engineer might look like.  The context is modeling and forecasting, but could apply to a larger sphere of engineering and business.

The engineer as fox - -
  • Multidisciplinary - - Incorporates ideas from different disciplines and regardless of their origin.
  • Adaptable - - Find a new approach - or pursue multiple approaches at the same time - if they aren't sure the original one is working.
  • Self-critical - - Sometimes willing (if rarely happy) to acknowledge mistakes in their predictions and accept blame for them.
  • Tolerant of complexity - - See the universe as complicated, perhaps to the point of many fundamental problems being irresolvable or inherently unpredictable.
  • Cautious - - Express their predictions in probabilistic terms and qualify their opinions.
  • Empirical - - Rely more on observation than theory.
The engineer as hedgehog - -
  • Specialized - - Often have spent the bulk of their careers on one or two great problems.  May view the opinions of "outsiders" skeptically.
  • Stalwart - - Stick to the same "all-in" approach - new data is used to refine the original model.
  • Stubborn - - Mistakes are blamed on bad luck or on idiosyncratic circumstances - a good model had a bad day.
  • Order-seeking - - Expect that the world will be found to abide by relatively simple governing relationships once the signal is identified through the noise.
  • Confident - - Rarely hedge their predictions and are reluctant to change them.
  • Ideological - - Expect that solutions to many day-to-day problems are manifestations of some grander theory or struggle.

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