Engineering and Erika Rothenberg

The picture is of America's Hopeful Future by artist Erika Rothenberg and is exhibited at the Museum of Contemporary Art in Chicago. She does a great job of summing up some of our current problems - - while still managing to convey through its humor the indomitable spirit of the nation.

We will need that spirit over the next 100 years. I am always fascinated when the 401(k) financial guru comes to the office. People take it for granted that their retirement funds can earn 8.5 percent a year (and the gurus always seem to have that historical stock market graph!). That's what everyone in the financial services industry tells you - - average of 8.5 percent over the long term. And sure, the stock market has generally gone up 6 to 8 percent on average a year. But in a larger historical perspective, that kind of growth is exceptional. What has driven the growth is the unique period of accelerating technological progress. We've gone from horses to cars to planes to rockets to computers to the Internet in a very short period of time. Technology has given us the 8.5 percent over the last 100 years. If you had done the equivalent of investing in the stock market from, say, 1000 to 1100 AD, you would not have made 8.5 percent a year. During the fall of the Roman Empire, you would have been lucky to get zero (and I am sure the good folks at Shields & Swords, Inc. were thinking they could get a 8.5 percent return on their equity - - right up until the Goths crossed the Rubicon and burned their showroom to the ground).

It is not automatic that the 8.5 percent will continue for another 100 years. Good ideas are the lifeblood of virtually every business. Unless you own a diamond mine, oil well, or patent on the wheel, you cannot afford to be complacent or let your business model become stale. The important element in the 8.5 percent equation is advancing technology and our spirit of adventure and innovation. It takes risk takers, a focus on education, access to capital, government R&D - - but most importantly it takes what Erika Rothenberg captured about the American spirit.