Introduction to Plan B Preparation

After the events along the Gulf Coast last week, engineering schools across the country need to think about adding a new class. We can call it "Introduction to Plan B Preparation" - - have it as a multidisciplinary class available for seniors. The editorial page in the May 11, 2010 edition of The Dallas Morning News, under the banner A Better Plan B From BP, bluntly states:

Accidents happen. But with so much at stake, from the credibility of the oil industry to the environmental disaster amassing along gulf shorelines, it's imperative that companies and regulators have an ironclad Plan B ready to go on a seconds notice.

Risk and uncertainty are unavoidable in the planning, design, construction, and management of engineering systems. The complexity and volatility of our systems - - natural and engineered - - requires engineers to have a comprehensive understanding of the issues relating to uncertainty, risk, and reliability. We are constantly moving to a new world order of much greater uncertainty - - be it from climate change or challenging the limits of technological advancement. A world of low risk probabilities but much higher consequences. From Katrina to drilling in 5,000 feet of sea water - - engineering risk analysis and management is becoming an inherent part of projects, programs, and a fact of life for engineering. The starting point, be it natural disasters or terror attacks, is understanding that the characterization of risk helps establish its specific content and context. To characterize risk, two basic elements are necessary - - (1) Probability of occurrence of a hazard, and (2) Extent of damage, which is governed by the vulnerability of a given system to the exposed hazard.

But upfront risk analysis and assessments have limitations and will newer capture each and every possible scenario. System complexity and randomness are powerful enemies battling the rational mind. Because of this, the quality of your Plan B (and C & D) becomes increasingly important (and if golf balls are part of your Plan C -- remember the words "credibility" and "ironclad"). The ability to execute Plan B - - in a timely manner with the appropriate skills, resources, technology, and leadership - - becomes as important or more so as the initial risk assessment exercise. Training plays an important part in a Plan B -- where critical decision making is conducted through the interpretations of a mix of various sources - - a complex balancing act - - the glue holding it all together is engineering judgement. A component of the Part B course should focus on the idea of flexible decision making in a crisis along with a firm understanding that the only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once - - except during a crisis or emergency.

The key element that one should take away from a Plan B preparation class are the "Three I's" - - Improvidence (the risk of not thinking about the future), Improvisation (the power of flexibility and creativity), and Impossibilities (an understanding of the "Black Swan" events). Thinking in terms of the I's will help you think about your Plan Bs.