Conflict Rivers

Water may be the next great source of regional or global conflict (In some areas, water can be added to  religion and oil as the third leg of the great conflict trifecta).  Water historically has produced arguments, litigation, disagreement, and the occasional shotgun blast.  A historical reading of war produces a rich soap opera of tensions, conflicting interests, and contentions relations, but not outright war between sovereign nations over water rights and access.  Water has been a tool, target, or victim of warfare - - but not its cause.

The future might be different - - and it may be different in the context of four specific river basins.  These four probably are good picks for a potential era of wars over water: (1) Jordon River - - water divided among Israel, Jordon, Lebanon, Syria, and the occupied Palestinian territories; (2) Tigris-Euphrates River - - water is used by Iraqis, Iranians, Syrians, Turks, and Kurds; (3) Indus River - - shared by Afghanistan, China, India, Pakistan, and Kashmir, and (4) Nile River - - Egypt and eight other countries control access.

Looking toward 2050, populations are projected to leap between 70% to 150% along these four river basins.  The list of countries along the basins are a who's who of international volatility.  Additional water supply and demand constraints will be just one more match for four regions marked already by dangerous powder kegs.