Technology and Broad Based Prosperity

The possibilities of democracy depend on the ability of the public to understand what is happening to our society and why.  One of our most pressing problems and puzzles is the decline in median family incomes.  This puzzle lies at the heart of much political tension and conflict along with continuing economic anxiety.  Median family income, which more than doubled between 1947 and 1973, increased by less than one-quarter between 1973 and 2004.  If you look at this decade, median family income has actually declined.

My father's career is a perfect example of this history.  My father went from farm boy in Hermitage, Missouri to senior vice president of a large bank in the Midwest; from a house without plumbing to Norman Rockwell middle class housing.  The transformation happened between the 1920s and 1980s - - all without my father having one credit hour of college.

This time period was marked by huge technological improvements - - from my grandfather's family Model T to a man on the moon.  No other period in human history has seen this trajectory of technological improvements producing such broad based prosperity.  My father's ability to advance and raise a middle class family was a function of many variables - - one very important variable was the advancement of technology.

I have gone from the slide ruler (yes, one semester my junior year in high school) to the IBM 360 to Facebook.  Huge improvements in technology and productivity - - mainly in the context of information technology.  But the nature of technology and forces of globalization have dampened the impact and breadth of economic prosperity.  Innovation is occurring, however at this particular point in time it is not the kind that benefits society as a whole.  The current dynamics of technology make Wall Street financiers rich.  Or they make Steve Jobs or Mark Zuckerberg rich without creating much employment.  The iPad has created fewer than 14,000 jobs in the U.S.; Facebook employs fewer than 2,000; Twitter fewer than 300.  It is extremely difficult to create Norman Rockwell paintings with these types of numbers.

Jonathan Huebner, a Pentagon physicist, has looked at this issue - - the stagnation of technology.  The attached graphic illustrates Huebner's point - - the per-person rate of innovation from the 15th century to the present where a peak occurred around 1873.  In the U.S., the number of patents issued per capita fell for most of the 20th century.  We still innovate - - but not compared to the late 19th and early 20th centuries.  Clearly we may break this apparent technology ceiling.  The Internet to nanotechnology to renewable energy to biomedical advances - - all of these technologies may eventually produce broad economic gains.  The pipeline may indeed be full - - where "when" is more important than "what" - - and Mr. Rockwell can start painting again.

The engineering community has an obligation to the public and democracy to fill in the blank space regarding the importance of technology, innovation, and creativity.  Clearly we are all anxious by the large scale changes that have overtaken American society.  It should also be noted that the sheer complexity of our economic and political system makes democratic choice and deliberation difficult, if not impossible.  The times might be uncomfortable, uncertain, and even troubling - - but engineers need to understand that we are at the foot of the mountain now.  We must change, invent, and imagine.