Defining Messes

Our current debt limit raising problems are a good example of what can be defined as a "mess."  Where a mess is a web of complex and dynamically interacting, ill-defined, and/or wicked problems (where a wicked problem is a problem for which there appears to be no satisfactory way of determining an appropriate set of means or ends that would obtain sufficient agreement among a diverse set of stakeholders). 

The debt limit raising mess illustrates the dynamic and complexity of the issue.  The issue is this ugly ball of politics, demographic change, economics, health care, retirement - - each and every press conference on Capital Hill reminds us that a mess is the world's way of telling us that we have been defining our problems too narrowly.  Essentially, the world is telling us that reality is too complex to be captured within the narrow confines of how we normally think, how we have been traditionally educated, and how we normally work.

The debt limit raising mess is somewhat a function of the mortgage lending mess.  The roots of this particular mess (and many others) can be grouped into three areas:

1. Swans - - the inability to bring to the surface and test false assumptions and mistaken beliefs (i.e., house prices will always go up).
2. Swine - - the inability to confront and manage greed, hubris, arrogance, and narcissism (e.g., "No job, no problem).
3. Swindlers - - the inability to confront, detect, and stop unethical and corrupt behavior (e.g., banking and finance influence in Washington).

The debt limit raising mess is some if not all of the Swans, Swine, and Swindlers.

The next time you listen to a press conference on Capital Hill, remember the following:

• Messes always have stated and unstated, conscious and unconscious assumptions, beliefs, emotions, and values that underlie the problems and potential solutions.
• A mess is always a part of other messes (e.g., federal debt and health care costs).
• All crises are messes.  But not all messes are crises (default would move our current debt limit mess into a crisis).  Improperly conceptualized and managed messes turn into crises (i.e., Katrina).
• Effective management of messes requires high levels of tolerance for messiness, complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty (the things engineers need to get more comfortable with).
• Effective management of messes requires high levels of consciousness (that is, advanced stages of human development) or awareness or one's self, others, and the environment (that doesn't sound like anyone or any institution in Washington, D.C.).

See - - Swans, Swine, and Swindlers by Alpaslan and Mitroff.