Jump Point

Author Tom Hayes explains a "Jump Point as a change in the environment so startling that we have no choice but to regroup and rethink the future." The economic history of the world is punctuated by Jump Points. The tricky part has been identifying them at the right time. Very often, we mistake the arrival of a stunning new invention for the Jump Point: we get mesmerized by a new innovation, think the world has changed the day a new technology leaves the lab. But that is rarely, if ever, the case. That is not the Jump Point.

Instead, technology revolution is a fitful process ("Technology revolutions always take longer than predicted, but arrive faster than anticipated."). New technologies take time to be absorbed and diffused. We are a curious species; it is human nature to tinker, and experiment, test, and play. And most inventions improve with applications, adoption, and time. Therefore, most Jump Points occur well after the enthusiasm settles and the parade has passed.

In his book, Jump Point: Now Network Culture is Revolutionizing Business (2009), Hayes writes the following:

• The convergence of personal computing and communications has created a worldwide network that allows people to connect directly to each other without middlemen, brokers, or arbiters between them. This is a lousy time to be a middleman, broker, or arbiter.
• Consumers, overwhelmed by information overload, struggle to reconcile the many competing claims for their attention in daily life. This is a bad time to be an attention-stealing interruption advertiser.
• People don't want anyone dictating when they do something, buy something, or watching something. This is an unfortunate time to be in an inflexible or time bounded business.
• People don't want restrictions on how they use, enjoy, manipulate, store, or share their property. Trying to command and control information rights is a loosing proposition.
• Consumers are acutely aware of their power to change the equations, flip the ratios, and obliterate the old market rules. Provide mechanisms for customer influence and expression . . . or go home.
• People don't trust their governments, large corporations, or political parties; they have an inherent trust in one another and in authenticity. This is a dangerous time to be untrustworthy, shifty, or phony - especially if you are a large, established institution.