Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Scramble and Blueprints

Shell Oil is famous for scenario development and planning.  Over the last 30 years they have released scenarios every few years regarding the future use of energy.

In 2008, they released two scenarios they believe most accurately describe the paths into the next 50 years.  The scenarios can best be described as Scramble and Blueprints.  They can be summarized by the following:
  • Scramble - - Over the coming decades, governments around the world scramble to attempt to guarantee the maximum amount of available resources in the pool - - nonrenewable energy.  Competing dominants cooperation in the context of geopolitical affairs.  Scramble is a "zero-sum game" - - increasing the gaps between rich and poor.  Competition is seen until 2025.  After 2025, the current energy framework is fundamentally stretched to its limits.  Countries, companies, and individuals begin to confront the consequences of their lack of restraint and poor planning.
  • Blueprints - - This scenario reveals the beneficial aspect of confronting climate change and energy problems sooner (that is, before 2020) rather than later.  The cornerstone of this scenario is both a sense of urgency and the flow of information.  Well-coordinated actions and a general awareness of the damaging effects of climate change drive a global sustainability scenario.  Process improvements and lifestyle choices are quickly matched or surpassed by others on a national and regional scale.  A global culture of sustainability develops - - helping to fuel a more effective international consensus.

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