Plan B Engineering

Two interesting articles on Plan B Engineering from yesterday.  Both have to do with the changing complexities of our highly centralized energy systems.  Plan A Engineering has been about designing a reliable and cost effective system for both the water and energy sectors.  All engineers are taught Plan A Engineering in school.  Plan A Engineering focuses on centralization and economies of scale.  The world will always need Plan A Engineering.  But the world will also increasingly look at Plan B Engineering.  Plan B is about system decentralization and improving overall system resilience.  Plan B Engineering looks at risk, consequences, and adaptability in a rapidly changing and evolving world.

The first is from The New York Times - Drought Hastens End of a Region's Hydropower Era.  The hydroelectric dams of the Lower Colorado River Authority make up about 40% of the state's hydropower (which in the grand scheme of the Texas power sector is really small).  Drought and Mother Nature have vastly shrunk the hydropower potential of Texas.  From the article:

"Faced with dwindling water supplies, the Lower Colorado River Authority which supplies water and energy to much of Central Texas, is limiting downstream water releases for activities like rice farming.  Aside from stirring controversy among water users, the changes have shrunk the amount of electricity the agency generates from its six Colorado River dams."

Hydropower was not the only Plan A Engineering at risk in Texas during the 2011 drought.  According to the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, more than 11,000 megawatts of Texas power generation - about 16% of ERCOT's total power resources - rely on cooling water that was at historic levels.  The water-energy nexus is alive and well in Texas.

The Economist paints a clear picture of the future of Plan B Engineering in Developing Power.  The strategic vision of Plan B Engineering might just be - "Who needs the power grid when you can generate and store your own electricity cheaply and reliably?"  Some really smart people are currently working on the batteries for distributed power storage - like Tesla Motors. 

Plan B Engineering might start looking like the following:

"But by far the most disruptive new power source is solar panels.  Morgan Stanley reckons that if Tesla's factory provides the cheap batteries it promises, Californian households will be able to run off a solar-plus-storage system costing just $350 a year.  Buying electricity off the grid may cost them $750 a year by then."

Lots of disruptive things are happening in the big power Plan A Engineering generation markets.  From the water-energy nexus to innovative big batteries to distributed power schemes run off of cheap natural gas and micro-turbines - - keep an eye on the stock price of your local utility.  Also, keep an eye on the amount of investment that goes into the current electric grid.  Plan B Engineering still needs Plan A Engineering - if we are to flourish in this new era - power needs to flow in two directions.