Thursday, November 10, 2016

Two Donald Trumps

My predictions - - a tale of two Trumps:

 The Good Trump

·       Teddy Roosevelt Bigness - - everything he does will be YUGE.  From tax code modernization to infrastructure investment.  Bigness to everything he approaches.  If it is not big - - he is not going to care.

·       Socialized Leadership Style - - end of Obama and W. style presidential remoteness.  Constant in your face management approach and style.  The Art of the Deal comes to the Oval Office and foreign capitals.

·       No Deficit or Debt Constraints - - the Democratization of the Republican Party.

·       Owes No One - - Maybe the most powerful President-Elect in U.S. history (pause and think about that for a moment).  Not beholden to anyone or anything for helping him get elected.  Zero political constraints.

·       YUGE increase in DOD and VA spending.

·       He and his family maybe smarter than people he will have on his Cabinet.  Executive branch managed more like a family business than a corporation.

The Bad Trump

·       Cannot fix big problems or turnaround certain industries.  The problems of the coal industry is not coal - - the problem is natural gas.  He has made YUGE promises to both the coal and natural gas industries - - this will be problematic.  Manufacturing - - 75% of manufacturing job loss since 2005 is associated with automation and robotics.  This ship has already sailed.  A truck loaded with beer just went from Denver to Dallas driverless last week.  The #1 job of non-college educated white males - - truck driver - - 1,500,000 employed.  You do the math.

·       Russian relations better - - but China relations goes off the cliff.  Increased borrowing (who buys all those treasuries?) while threatening trade wars?  To the Chinese, Trump is a sign/signal of American declinism.  They have been around since the 10th century - - waiting him out four years is a blip on their time line.  Mexico has the potential to drift very quickly into economic and political chaos - - this is a YUGE problem for Texas.

·       More federal borrowing + higher inflation via protectionist trade policies = the Era of Higher Interest Rates. and Higher Inflation Occurring at the Same Time.  The disappointment of not producing enough $45 per hour manufacturing jobs, but producing higher interest rates and inflation makes for another circus in 2020.

·       The infrastructure plan looks very heavy on P3 and privatization.

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