My predictions - - a tale of two Trumps:
The Good Trump
· Teddy Roosevelt Bigness - - everything he does will be YUGE. From tax code modernization to infrastructure investment. Bigness to everything he approaches. If it is not big - - he is not going to care.
· Socialized Leadership Style - - end of Obama and W. style presidential remoteness. Constant in your face management approach and style. The Art of the Deal comes to the Oval Office and foreign capitals.
· No Deficit or Debt Constraints - - the Democratization of the Republican Party.
· Owes No One - - Maybe the most powerful President-Elect in U.S. history (pause and think about that for a moment). Not beholden to anyone or anything for helping him get elected. Zero political constraints.
· YUGE increase in DOD and VA spending.
· He and his family maybe smarter than people he will have on his Cabinet. Executive branch managed more like a family business than a corporation.
The Bad Trump
· Cannot fix big problems or turnaround certain industries. The problems of the coal industry is not coal - - the problem is natural gas. He has made YUGE promises to both the coal and natural gas industries - - this will be problematic. Manufacturing - - 75% of manufacturing job loss since 2005 is associated with automation and robotics. This ship has already sailed. A truck loaded with beer just went from Denver to Dallas driverless last week. The #1 job of non-college educated white males - - truck driver - - 1,500,000 employed. You do the math.
· Russian relations better - - but China relations goes off the cliff. Increased borrowing (who buys all those treasuries?) while threatening trade wars? To the Chinese, Trump is a sign/signal of American declinism. They have been around since the 10th century - - waiting him out four years is a blip on their time line. Mexico has the potential to drift very quickly into economic and political chaos - - this is a YUGE problem for Texas.
· More federal borrowing + higher inflation via protectionist trade policies = the Era of Higher Interest Rates. and Higher Inflation Occurring at the Same Time. The disappointment of not producing enough $45 per hour manufacturing jobs, but producing higher interest rates and inflation makes for another circus in 2020.
· The infrastructure plan looks very heavy on P3 and privatization.