My predictions - - a tale of two Trumps:
·
Teddy Roosevelt Bigness - - everything he does
will be YUGE. From tax code modernization to infrastructure
investment. Bigness to everything he approaches. If it is not big
- - he is not going to care.
·
Socialized Leadership Style - - end of Obama and
W. style presidential remoteness. Constant in your face management
approach and style. The Art of the Deal comes to the Oval Office and
foreign capitals.
·
No Deficit or Debt Constraints - - the
Democratization of the Republican Party.
·
Owes No One - - Maybe the most powerful
President-Elect in U.S. history (pause and think about that for a
moment). Not beholden to anyone or anything for helping him get
elected. Zero political constraints.
·
YUGE increase in DOD and VA spending.
·
He and his family maybe smarter than people he
will have on his Cabinet. Executive branch managed more like a family
business than a corporation.
The Bad Trump
·
Cannot fix big problems or turnaround certain
industries. The problems of the coal industry is not coal - - the problem
is natural gas. He has made YUGE promises to both the coal and natural
gas industries - - this will be problematic. Manufacturing - - 75% of
manufacturing job loss since 2005 is associated with automation and
robotics. This ship has already sailed. A truck loaded with beer
just went from Denver to Dallas driverless last week. The #1 job of
non-college educated white males - - truck driver - - 1,500,000 employed.
You do the math.
·
Russian relations better - - but China relations
goes off the cliff. Increased borrowing (who buys all those treasuries?)
while threatening trade wars? To the Chinese, Trump is a sign/signal of
American declinism. They have been around since the 10th
century - - waiting him out four years is a blip on their time line.
Mexico has the potential to drift very quickly into economic and political
chaos - - this is a YUGE problem for Texas.
·
More federal borrowing + higher inflation via
protectionist trade policies = the Era of Higher Interest Rates. and Higher
Inflation Occurring at the Same Time. The disappointment of not producing
enough $45 per hour manufacturing jobs, but producing higher interest rates and
inflation makes for another circus in 2020.
·
The infrastructure plan looks very heavy on P3
and privatization.
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