Thinking About Growth

From The Age of Stagnation: Why Perpetual Growth in Unattainable and the Global Economy is in Peril by Satyajit Das

"Economic expansion is not a continuous process that can persist forever.  Growth and improvements in living standards will slow significantly.  For "shock value," economist Robert Gordon speculates that future US growth rates, adjusted for his six headwinds (demographics, declining educational attainments, rising inequality, the effects of globalization, environmental costs, and debt overhang) may by 0.2 percent, well below even the modest 1.8 percent of 1987-2007.

Low or no growth is not necessarily a problem.  In nature, growth is only a temporary phase, which ceases at maturity.  Low economic growth may have positive effects on the environment and the conservation of scarce resources.  But the current economic, political, and social system is predicated on endless economic expansion and related improvements in living standards.  Strong growth is also needed now to solve the problem of high levels of government and private debt.  In his novel about the Depression, The Grapes of Wrath, John Steinbeck identified this tendency; "When the monster stops growing, it dies.  It can't stay one size.""