Cheap Oil and Moore's Law

We are where we are because of the rise of two things in the last 100 years - - cheap oil and Moore's Law.  To do anything requires energy.  To specify what is done requires information - - information that begins with Moore's Law. 

The rise of a middle class in China and India is a fundamental demographic shift - - one of those transition points in human history.  This will put enormous price and supply pressures on oil and a host of commodities.  McDonald's hamburgers and two-car garages have the same basic input - - oil.

Consider the words of science fiction writer Jerry Pournelle as he discusses the root cause of food production and pollution control problems - -

"Food and pollution are not primary problems: they are energy problems.  Given sufficient energy we can produce as much food as we like, if need be, by high-intensity means such as hydroponics and greenhouses.  Pollution is similar: given enough energy, pollutants can be transformed into manageable products, if need be, disassembled into their constituent products."

Technology, with help from Moore's Law is going to be the input that replaces cheap energy as we deal with food and pollutions problems.  Worldwide, generating capacity from wind grew from 17 billion watts in 2000 to 121 billion watts in 2008.  Wind power, once considered a minor player, is becoming increasingly prominent.  The sun is still important - - remember that coal and oil are nothing more than concentrations of sunlight.  Solar voltaic production is growing by 45% per year, almost doubling every two years.  Worldwide, photovoltaic installation is now 15 billion watts, growing by 5.6 billion watts in 2008 alone.  Keep an eye on the price of Saharan real estate.

The real problem we face is the transition from gasoline to electricity - - and what will be the source of electricity for our electric cars and mobility.