U.S. intelligence report warns of global water crisis

World Water Day was March 22, 2012.  Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke at the World Water Day 2012 celebration in Washington DC.  Some of the most interesting comments in her speech were the following paragraphs - -

"Last year, I called on the intelligence community to conduct a global assessment of the impact water could have and was having on our national security.  Today, the National Intelligence Council released the unclassified version of its report on Global Water Security.  You can go online, read it for yourself, and see how imperative clean water and access to water is to future peace, security, and prosperity, globally.  I think it's fair to say the intelligence community's findings are sobering.

As the world's population continues to grow, demand for water will go up, but our freshwater supplies will not keep pace.  In some places, the water tables are already more depleted than we had thought.  In northern India, for example, over-extraction of groundwater could impact food security and access to water for millions of people.  Some countries will face severe shortages within decades or even sooner.  And some hydrologists predict that many wells in Yemen will run dry in as little as 10 years.

The assessment also highlights the potential threat that water resources could be targeted by terrorists or manipulated as a political tool.  These difficulties will all increase the risk of instability within and between states.  Within states, they could cause some states to fail outright.  And between and among states, you could see regional conflicts among states that share water basins be exacerbated and even lead to violence.  So these threats are real and they raise serious security concerns."

The unclassified document is located at - -

http://www.dni.gov/nic/ICA_Global%20Water%20Security.pdf

This assessment is truly a landmark document that puts water security in the rightful context of a national security issue.  The assessment is very clear - - during the next 10 years, many regions will experience water challenges - shortages, poor water quality, or floods - that will increase the risk of instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States on important U.S. policy objectives.

The assessment detailed five key judgements.  These are as follows:

Key Judgement A - - We assess that during the next 10 years, water problems will contribute to instability in states important to U.S. national security interests.  Water shortages, poor water quality, and floods by themselves are unlikely to result in state failure.  However, water problems - when combined with poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions - contribute social disruptions that can result in state failures.

Key Judgement B - - We assess that a water-related state-on-state conflict is unlikely during the next 10 years.  Historically, water tensions have led to more water-sharing agreements than violent conflicts.  However, we judge that as water shortages become more acute beyond the next 10 years, water in shared basins will increasingly be used as leverage, the use of water as a weapon or to further terrorist objectives also will become more likely beyond 10 years.

Key Judgement C - - We judge that during the next 10 years the depletion of groundwater supplies in some agricultural areas - owing to poor management - will pose a risk to national and global food markets.

Key Judgement D - - We assess that from now through 2040 water shortages and pollution probably will harm the economic performance of important trading partners.

Key Judgement E - - We judge that, from now through 2040, improved water management (e.g., pricing, allocations, and "virtual water" trade) and investments in water-related sectors (e.g., agriculture, power, and water treatment) will afford the best solutions for water problems.  Because agriculture uses approximately 70 percent of the global fresh water supply, the greatest potential for relief from water scarcity will be through technology that reduces the amount of water needed for agriculture.