An Engineer Looks at Human Biases and Climate Change

The current issue of ENR magazine has an excellent cover story on the new normal - extreme weather.  The article has an insightful comment from Cindy Walls-Lage of Black & Veatch:

"This is the new normal - we can't just say we can manage through this," says Cindy Walls-Lage, Black & Veatch president of its global water business.  "You would have to live in a box to not notice that we have seen changes.  It is negligent for us to ignore it."

Some portion of the population is clearly living in a box as Ms. Walls-Lage rightfully points out.  But a far greater portion of the population has a more complex shortcoming.  Engineers, managers, and policy managers are faced with understanding the human shortcoming of biases that distort our ability to make sound decisions.  The issue of climate change and extreme weather events touches quite a few of the more important biaes associated with the human experience. 

In the context of sustainability, climate change mitigation and adaptation, here is a sampling of what engineers are up against.

• The Bandwagon Effect.  Most people just want to fit in.  We basically have a desire to do what other people do.  Wanting to change your lifestyle, from moving farther from the beach or purchasing green power, is often scoffed at.  People are unwilling to take the risk of being different.  People like the "old normal" and don't want to think about or be grouped with the "new normal."
• The Giddens Paradox.  Historically it has been extremely difficult to see the impacts of global change.  Ms. Walls-Lage is correct in pointing out that we have arrived at a tipping point regarding our understanding of extreme weather consequences.  The Giddens Paradox relates to the dangers posed by global warming becasue they aren't tangible, immediate, or visible in the course of day-to-day life.  The people living in "a box" will sit on their hands and do nothing - yet waiting until they become visible and acute before stirring to serious action will by definition be too late.
• The Endowment Effect.  We demand much more to give up an object.  When the old furnace breaks down, it can be replaced with a newer, more efficient and environmentally friendly model, but until then it would be a waste of money just to toss it out.  The same is true with public infrastructure - it has to serve its time, even in cases where there is a clear economic and environmental upside to start thinking of infrastructure in terms of resilience, robustness, redundancy and resourcefulness.
• Delayed Gratification.  We prefer immediate payoffs to delayed payoffs.  This bias toward instant gratification makes it difficult to motivate people to make decisions rewarded in the long run.  The world is full of long-term investments that we should be making.  But the complexity and overwhelming consequences of climate change results in an ostrich effect for many people.  They don't acknowledge the problem and the end result is that very little gets done.
• Single-Action Bias.  Peace of mind from the quick fix (i.e., changing to more efficient light bulbs).  Once the house has new and efficient light bulbs, other more critical issues such as car pooling, use of public transportation, and adding insulation to the attic gains little or no attention.  We have a tendency to focus on the short-term/single-action at the expense of the longer term and more impactful measures. 

The question for engineers and managers, given the fact outlined in the ENR article that "clearly, we are not prepared", is how to guide the public in the right direction.  An important first step is for engineers to have a firm understanding of the biases outlined above that produce individual and collective barriers to adopting many of the long-term practices needed for sustainability and climate change adaptation.