A (The) Big Problem

Nathan Myhrvold is the former chief technology officer at Microsoft Corp. - - having degrees in subjects including economics, geophysics, and theoretical and mathematical physics.  He devotes much of his time lately to his company, Intellectual Ventures, whose business plan is to invest in new ideas.

In a March 7, 2011 interview with The Wall Street Journal, Myhrvold makes it crystal clear regarding what all engineers would consider "A Big Problem" is in fact probably "The Big Problem."  Myhrvold stated the following in the interview - -

"The single biggest problem we have to focus on in this century is how to get every citizen of Earth roughly the same per-capita energy we enjoy in the developed world.  China is developing .  India is developing.  They all want the lifestyle we have.  The world's energy problem is about how we expand our energy budget by a factor of 10 or more, and short of incredible disaster or war.  I don't know how we stop that.


We don't have any viable way to do it.  I don't believe that problem can be solved with any combination of existing technologies."

You can see how "A Big Problem" will become "The Big Problem" when you compare the U.S. and India.  According to the World Resources Institute, U.S. per capita energy consumption is in the 10,000 watts per person range, while India is around 600 to 700 watts per person.  A factor of 15.  Assuming the goal is to get India up to the U.S. level by 2050, energy supply and availability would have to grow annually in India by 7%.  That type of growth would produce "The Big Problem." 

The top billion drive automobiles at the rate of 435.1 per 1,000 people.  The next billion drives at the rate of 125.2 per 1,000 people.  Roughly a factor of 3.5.  The bottom billion drives at the rate of 5.8 per 1,000 people.  A factor of 75 compared to the top billion.  Assuming the goal is to get automobile ownership up to half the top billion level (435.1/2=217.55 per 1,000 people) by the year 2050, this translates into an annual growth rate of 9.5%.

Expanding our energy profile and pipeline to accommodate the billions wanting to move up the economic ladder will be "The Big Problem" for a generation of engineers, planners, managers, and policy makers.