Friday, May 20, 2011

Words for 2050

Over the next forty years, four primary forces will have a significant impact on engineering and the organizations that engineers work for.  Thinking about the future is not predicting the future (the Niels Bohr line is appropriate - - "Prediction is very difficult.  Especially about the future.").  But ignoring the forces that will shape the future is rooted in ignorance. 

The first force is related to demographic trends.  Slow population growth in the developed world, hyper-growth in the developing world.  Mega-cities shaped by mass movement from rural communities to urban environments.  A world of multi-speed economic growth and challenges - - from slowing in the U.S. to speeding in Asia.  The second is natural resource demand.  Oil is always in the news, but indium, lithium, and even helium - - new shortages for a new world.  Energy, water, and food - - development, production, and distribution all intersect at the same time at the same place.  The third is climate change.  Too much rain.  Not enough rain.  California browning, Shanghai drowning.  The fourth is globalization - - World 3.0.  The movement from "semi-globalization" to the real deal.  Meta-corporations in search of global creativity and innovation.  Goods, services, money, people, and ideas all circling the planet.

Given the four forces and their potential impacts between now and 2050, engineers, managers, leaders, stakeholders, shareholders, etc. need to be looking at the concepts and words that will shape their actions.  The new strategic response to the four forces might be a simple, but powerful and important word - - flexibility, with the star performers moving to super-flexibility.  Keep an eye on these words and concepts embedded in the era of flexibility and super-flexibility:
  • Agility - - Moving nimbly, with a sense of urgency.
  • Dexterity - - Deftly switching gears, skill of balancing creativity and control.
  • Elasticity - - Stretching and shrinking to accommodate different pressures.
  • Hedging - - Mitigating against the losses associated with "downside" potential.
  • Liquidity - - Transforming assets without substantial switching costs.
  • Malleability - - Able to bend to meet contours, willingness to make concessions.
  • Mobility - - Re-deployable assets and capabilities.
  • Modularity - - Re-configurable building blocks (or organizational units).
  • Plasticity - - Configurable to the reality being confronted.
  • Robustness - - Taking hits with minimal damage to functional capability.
  • Resilience - - Bouncing back from the brink of disaster.
  • Versatility - - Functioning with dexterity in different settings.

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