Saturday, May 28, 2011

What is Chinese for Rare?

Rare in this case refers to the rare earths - - that part of the periodic table discovered in the 18th century as oxidized minerals.  Actually they're metals and actually not even rare.  The rarest rare earth is nearly 200 times more abundant than gold.  The rare part comes from the lack of concentration - - finding concentrations that are worth mining is rare.

Here is a current rundown on the rare earths (seventeen metals) - - price range per pound and uses of the metal:
  1. Scandium - - $1,000 and above / consumer products and transportation
  2. Yttrium - - $60 to $199 / military, medical, energy, and consumer products
  3. Lanthanum - - $60 to $199 / military, energy, consumer products, and transportation
  4. Cerium - - $60 to $199 / energy, consumer products, and transportation
  5. Praseodymium - - $60 to $199 / medical, energy, consumer products, and transportation
  6. Neodymium - - $60 to $199 / military, medical, energy, consumer products, and transportation
  7. Promethium - - Produced by nuclear fission, not mined
  8. Samarium - - $60 to $199 / military, energy, consumer products, and transportation
  9. Europium - - $200 to $999 / medical, energy, and consumer products
  10. Gadolinium - - $60 to $199 / military, medical, and consumer products
  11. Terbium - - $200 to $999 / military, medical, energy, consumer products, and transportation
  12. Dysprosium - - $200 to $999 / medical, energy, consumer products, and transportation
  13. Holmium - - $200 to $99 / military and energy
  14. Erbium - - $60 to $199 / consumer products
  15. Thulium - - $1,000 and above / military an medical
  16. Ytterbium - - $200 to $999 / military and consumer products
  17. Lutetium - - $1,000 and above / medical and energy
The world market depends on China for the rare earths.  China supplies 97% of the world's rare earth needs.  Over the next decade China is expected to steadily reduce rare earth exports in order to protect the supplies of its own rapidly growing industries, which already consume 60% of the rare earths produced in the country.

Look at dysprosium, which is used in computer hard drives.  In 2003, dysprosium sold for $6.77 per pound.  It now sells for $212 a pound.  This is just one example of a potential rare earth's demand and supply crunch - - in 2015 the world's industries are forecast to consume an estimated 185,000 tons of rare earths, 50% more than the total for 2010 (sometime do a list - - all the resources that need to go up by 50% in the next 20 or 30 years).  With China holding tightly to its reserves, where will the rest of the world get the elements that have become vital to modern technology?

The U.S.G.S. provides annual assessments on most of the rare earths - - for example, this is a link to the Indium report.  Life-cycle assessment for the rare earths with the goal of evaluating sustainability will be increasingly important.  With rare earths in just about everything and China holding 48% of the world's reserves (United States has 13%) - - a lot of people are worried.  Demand and supply heading down the path marked "unsustainable."

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