Too Many Men?

Every two years the United Nation's population division updates its projections.  Provided below is the 2100 "Top Ten" in millions - -

• India - 1,551
• China - 941
• Nigeria - 730
• United States - 478
• Tanzania - 316
• Pakistan - 261
• Indonesia - 254
• Congo - 212
• Philippines - 178
• Brazil - 177

For comparison, the 2010 "Top Ten" in millions - -

• China - 1,341
• India - 1,225
• United States - 310
• Indonesia - 240
• Brazil - 195
• Pakistan - 174
• Nigeria - 158
• Bangladesh - 149
• Russia - 143
• Japan - 127

According to the UN, the world's population will surpass 7 billion at the end of October, a few months earlier than had been expected.  The global total will continue to rise slowly until 2100, when it will flatten out at 10.1 billion.  During the period of faster growth, in the late 1980s, the world's population was rising by over 88 million a year.  Now annual growth is down to 75 million and by 2050 it will be only 40 million (The reason - - declining fertility rates everywhere).

The 2010 versus 2100 comparison has several interesting points - -

• The #1 and #2 flip-flop between China and India - - with the Chinese population declining by 400 million, basically the size of the United States.
• Both lists answer the "Why should we care about Pakistan?" question - - the sixth largest country, with a huge military (that has the record of never winning a war), hundreds of nuclear weapons, an unstable economic/social/political structure, in dangerous part of the world.
• The 2100 estimate projects three African countries in the "Top Ten."  Africa's population will rise from 1 billion in 2010 to 3.6 billion in 2100.  Sub-Saharan Africa is by far the fastest-growing part of the world.  Africa is just one example of the tremendous growth that will occur in the developing world. 
• China's dependency ratio (the number of children and old people as a share of working-age adults) is rising faster than Europe's.

One final note.  In 2025, China will have 96 million men in their 20s but only 80 million women - - a 1.20 ratio.  India will have a 1.10 ratio - - 126 million men to 115 million women.  By comparison, the United States in the 15-64 year old category in 2010 has approximately a 1:1 ratio.  At birth, the global ratio is around 105-107 males per 100 females.  It will be interesting to see the social, economic, and environmental (there is a body of research that has documented the higher carbon footprints of males versus females) impacts of more men than women in certain parts of the world.