Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Getting Prepared for a New Texas

If you are a demographics junkie like me, you need to get a copy of Changing Texas: Implications of Addressing or Ignoring the Texas Challenge by Steve Murdock.  Here are the facts that Texas will be facing this century - - and the future should be rather obvious as you read down the list:
  • The average age of a non-Hispanic white (NHW) woman in TX is 42.  The average age of a Hispanic woman in TX is 28.  One group on the downside of the fertility curve and the other group on the upside.  Demographics is destiny.
  • Projecting to the next generation - NHWs will contribute 2% toward population growth, while Hispanics will contribute 70%.
  • NHWs make up 2/3 of workers in TX with bachelor's degrees.  By 2050, Hispanic workers will outnumber NHWs 3 to 1. 
  • By 2050 Hispanic households will outnumber NHWs 2 to 1.
  • The downward-mobility-spiral looks like this - - Hispanics currently aren't generating enough college graduates to fill the demographic/retirement shift, which means lower quality jobs, which means lower median incomes, which means reduced consumer spending, which means a lower tax base and less tax revenue, which means less tax revenue at a time you have a rapidly aging population that needs public support, which means taxes will need to be increased, which means . . . . Texas necesita una fuerza de trabajo educada joven y la universidad para tener √©xito.

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