Monday, June 9, 2014

The American Society of Civil Engineers and the Budgetary Math Problem


I would like to see ASCE expand their annual infrastructure report card and add a series of slides that address our basic budgetary math problem.  In general, everyone understands the problem regarding why our nation's infrastructure continues to crumble.  The problem is ASCE and many others just will not cross the line to talk about it (we get right up to the line and actually have chalk on our shoes, but never crossing). Maybe with a slide heading such as "Dear Younger Members" or "Difficult Questions for Your Aging Boss" or "Welcome to Your Future" or "I am Glad Mom and Dad are Living Longer, But the Bridge Just Fell Down" or "Why Yesterday's ASCE Membership is Spending the Next Generation's Infrastructure Money" - - a series of slides on our failure to reckon with the future and our slowness in dealing with the budgetary math problem (and the budgetary math problem is not just a national problem - state and locals have huge math problems also).

A primer on my recommended slides can be found in the Frank Bruni column in the New York Times column yesterday - Dear Millennials, We're Sorry.  From the article:

"He's{former Senator and Governor Bob Kerry} fixated on those sorts of numbers: According to the Congressional Budget Office, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid totaled 6.7 percent of the country's gross domestic product in 1990.  By 2010, they were 10 percent.  And by 2038, such spending may represent 14.3 percent.  It's hard to see how that leaves much money for discretionary spending on infrastructure, on education, on research, on a range of investments that safeguard or improve the America that today's young people will inherit.

The Urban Institute released a report in 2012 that looked at figures form 2008 for the combined local, state and federal spending that directly benefited Americans 65 and older versus spending that went to Americans under 19; the per capita discrepancy was $26,355 versus $11,822.  Julia Issacs, a senior fellow at the institute, told me that while data for subsequent years hadn't been analyzed yet, it wouldn't show a significant change in that gap."

At your next local ASCE lunch meeting, grab a seat at the retiree table and jump in with - - "I'm glad that you are living longer, but it's creating this budgetary math problem that ASCE and many, many others are unwilling to look at.  Can we talk about this over the meal?"  Younger members need to assert themselves, even at the intimidating retiree table. Follow up with "You have this visceral dislike of tax increases and you spend all your retirement time and energy voting - but you are really squeezing your grandchildren out." Expect some push back.  Follow up with the fact that infrastructure spending as a percentage of GDP is at historic levels.  Hit them with a firm closing - - if we continue down this path of "to those who have, more shall be given" and continue to ignore investment for the future while only paying for the past, we are collectively doomed.  But also remember the math - in 2023, entitlement payments to older Americans would rise to 46 percent of the budget from 40 percent now.  Retired engineers get math.

If nothing else, get them to say they are sorry.  They owe the next generations an apology.  ASCE owes you an apology.

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